Asaduddin Owaisi's All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen has announced 16 candidates for the upcoming Maharashtra Assembly elections. This is a massive decrease from the 44 candidates it fielded in the 2019 Assembly elections - a 63 percent reduction to be precise. It is also much less than the 24 candidates AIMIM fielded in the 2014 Assembly elections.
Since the last date for filing nominations was 29 October, the AIMIM's candidates are not going to increase.
This reduction is not arbitrary.
There are two clear logistical reasons - it helps deploy financial resources in a more focused manner and also since Asaduddin Owaisi is the star campaigner, he would be able to spend more time on each seat.
But there's more to it.
So what's the AIMIM's strategy?
A source in in the AIMIM's Maharashtra unit told The Quint, "In this election, his (Asaduddin Owaisi's) priority is to get more Muslims elected across party lines".
This is in sharp contrast to the earlier strategy that the AIMIM had been pursuing outside Telangana.
The AIMIM's expansion strategy over much of the past decade, was inspired by the formula Kanshi Ram had given when he was expanding the Bahujan Samaj Party - Pehla chunav haarne ke liye, doosra haraane ke liye, teesra jeetne ke liye (This first election is for losing, the second is to make another party lose and the third is to win).
The AIMIM's aim this time is to focus on its own winnability and also increase Muslim representation overall.
"Secular parties deny tickets to Muslims in seats with a sizable Muslim population, either because of their own biases or they feel Hindu voters won't vote for a Muslim candidate. That is why AIMIM is needed to keep a check (on such parties). Our aim is to increase Muslim representation overall, not just through AIMIM," a senior party leader told The Quint.
How is This Playing Out in This Election?
Out of the 16 candidates fielded by AIMIM, in only four seats are they up against a Muslim candidate of the Maha Vikas Aghadi - Dhule, Malegaon Central, Versova and Mankhurd-Shivajinagar. In the first two seats AIMIM has nominated its sitting MLAs. Therefore here the AIMIM's argument is that the MVA is trying to harm its prospects and not the other way around. The third seat is Versova, where AIMIM Mumbai chief Raees Lashkaria will be taking on Harun Khan of the Shiv Sena (UBT) besides sitting BJP MLA Bharti Lavekar.
In Mankhurd-Shivajinagar, AIMIM sources say that the decision is in response to Azmi's decision to put up SP candidates in AIMIM's key seats like Aurangabad East and Malegaon Central. In Aurangabad East, SP has fielded former AIMIM leader Gaffar Qadri against AIMIM Maharashtra chief Syed Imtiaz Jaleel. This is despite the fact that the Congress has already fielded a candidate in the seat within the Maha Vikas Aghadi.
The situation may change in these seats closer to 4 November, the last date for withdrawal of nominations.
Four out of the 16 seats being contested by AIMIM are reserved for Scheduled Castes and the party has fielded Dalit candidates in these seats.
Demography is also a reason for contesting lesser number of seats. Unlike Seemanchal and Hyderabad, Maharashtra doesn't have many constituencies with a clear Muslim majority. There are just about 5 seats in Maharashtra where Muslims are over 50 percent and only 1 where they are over 60 percent (Malegaon Central).
These demographic constraints have been at the root of Muslim underrepresentation in Maharashtra.
The Question of Muslim Representation in Maharashtra
Maharashtra has seen a Muslim chief minister - AR Antulay in the early 1980s - but representation in the Assembly has been disproportionately less than the community's share of the population.
According to the 2011 Census, Muslims account for 11.5 percent of Maharashtra's population. The highest number of Muslim MLAs elected in Maharashtra was 13 in 1999. This is less than five percent in the 288-member house.
In 2019, 10 Muslim MLAs were elected and in 2014, 9. In this election, the MVA has fielded 14 Muslim candidates and the Mahayuti 7.
Consistently, a majority of Muslim MLAs in Maharashtra have come from Muslim concentration pockets in the Greater Mumbai region and in Malegaon City.
The party distribution of Muslim MLAs has also been diverse. Besides the Congress, Muslim MLAs in the past have been elected on the tickets of the Indian Union Muslim League and socialist parties like Janata Dal, Samajwadi Party, JSS, and Socialist Party of India. Then there was the case of Sabir Shaikh a close aide of Bal Thackeray, who was elected from Ambernath in Thane three terms in a row on a Shiv Sena ticket when Thackeray was at the peak of his power in the 1990s.
While in Mumbai and Malegaon, AIMIM has managed to build on already existing experiments in Muslim representation politics, it's main breakthrough area in Maharashtra has been Aurangabad.
It has brought Muslim representation in an area where the community has been historically underrepresented.
While the urban Assembly constituencies in Aurangabad haven't elected Muslim MLAs for decades until AIMIM emerged into the electoral scene, Aurangabad Lok Sabha seat has been a Shiv Sena-BJP bastion since 1985.
AIMIM's Aurangabad Model
The emergence of AIMIM and Imtiaz Jaleel in Aurangabad's electoral scene has been a surprise. Jaleel won from Aurangabad Central Assembly constituency in 2014 and Aurangabad Lok Sabha seat in 2019, bringing an end to Shiv Sena's nearly two decade long dominance.
There were two reasons for it.
The first was that Aurangabad became the Ground Zero of Asaduddin Owaisi's 'Jai Bhim, Jai Mim' politics. Aurangabad district has a Muslim population of 21 percent and a Dalit Buddhist population of a little over 8 percent. In Aurangabad City, Muslims are about 30 percent and Buddhists 15 percent. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, AIMIM's pre-poll alliance with Prakash Ambedkar's Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi helped Jaleel get a sizable chunk of Dalit Buddhist votes.
The second reason for AIMIM's success has been the split within the Hindutva parties in the area. In 2014, a major reason for Jaleel's win was that the BJP and Sena were both in the fray. Both parties secured a little over 20 percent votes. Jaleel won comfortably with 32 percent.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Maratha leader Harshvardhan Jadhav contested from the Aurangabad Lok Sabha seat and polled nearly 24 percent votes. Sena stalwart Chandrakant Khaire polled 32 percent votes, less than 1 percentage point behind Jaleel.
This time there is already talk of 'Hindu unity' against AIMIM on the ground, especially after Shiv Sena UBT leader Kishanchand Tanwani declared that he won't contest from Aurangabad Central to prevent what he calls "a repeat of 2014 (Jaleel's win)". It is clear that in Tanwani's worldview, AIMIM is the larger enemy.
Besides this attempt at Hindu consolidation, AIMIM is facing another challenge in Aurangabad - the VBA has fielded Muslim candidates in both the seats where AIMIM has a chance.
It is clear that while AIMIM may be pursuing a policy of least possible harm towards bigger secular parties like Congress and NCPSP, especially towards Muslim leaders within these parties, it continues to face challenges from smaller secular parties like VBA and SP.