"The situation is different from 2014 and 2019 now," said Maharashtra Congress chief Nana Patole on Tuesday, 24 May, while commenting on the alleged differences within the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) allies in Maharashtra over a seat-sharing formula for the 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state, the second highest in the country.
The talks between the MVA allies — the Shiv Sena (UBT), the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), and the Congress — to reach a consensus on the seats have picked pace and so has the politicking in Maharashtra.
Almost 10 months since the Uddhav Thackeray-led MVA government fell, the alliance has been relentlessly putting up a united front despite differences behind the curtains. However, the road to consensus on the seat sharing formula between the three parties is a rocky one.
Even while giving contrasting statements, all three parties have clarified that the elections will be contested together. However, three major points of contention over seat sharing between the three parties have clearly emerged.
Assume Nothing, Expect Anything: 3 Big Cracks in MVA's Talks for 2024 Elections
1. Who Gets the 'Big Brother' Status?
To understand this, a quick look at the numbers as per the 2019 Lok Sabha and Assembly polls in the state —
The NCP won 4/18 Lok Sabha seats (22%) it contested and 54/121 Assembly seats (45%).
The Congress won 1/25 Lok Sabha seats it contested (4%) and 44/147 Assembly seats (30%).
The Shiv Sena (UBT) performed better than both Congress and the NCP in both elections in 2019. It won 18/23 Lok Sabha seats it contested (78%) and 56/126 Assembly seats (44%).
The statistics for Thackeray, however, changed after Eknath Shinde split the party last year. He is now left with 6/18 Lok Sabha MPs and 17/56 MLAs the party had won in 2019.
The issue of the 'big brother' status emerged when Ajit Pawar in an address to party workers in Kolhapur on 20 May clearly staked claim on it.
"We are a constituent of the MVA. We have to keep the front strong. Your prominence within the MVA will remain only if you are strong. The Congress had more seats in every previous election. We had to play the role of the younger brother while allotting seats. But now, we have become the bigger brother than the Congress because they have 44 seats and we have 54 seats. Uddhav Thackeray had 56 MLAs. This is math," Ajit Pawar said.
Former Maharashtra chief minister and senior Congress leader Ashok Chavan, however, downplayed Pawar's comments on Tuesday saying that "there is no big brother or younger brother in the alliance, we are like triplets."
Expand2. Who Gets More Seats?
The number of seats that the three parties will contest on out of the 48 seats is the second biggest point of contention between the three parties.
Questions are being raised after Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut in an address to the media last week said that the party will not give up the 18 seats it has in Maharashtra and one in Dadra and Nagar Haveli.
"We have 19 seats in the Lok Sabha already. We have won those seats, so those will remain with us. The NCP has four seats. Why will there be a discussion on these? The Congress has just one seat in Chandrapur. It is a different matter if people have switched sides later. But 18 seats in Maharashtra and one seat in Dadra and Nagar Haveli, this figure of 19 will remain as it is for us. I am just saying that this figure will remain as it is, this is not a demand," Raut said.
However, Maharashtra Congress chief Nana Patole on Tuesday said that the distribution of seats should take place on the basis of merit.
"The situation is different now than it was in 2014 and 2019. The Congress will review each seat by the first week of June and take a decision," Patole said.
Speaking to the media on 20 May, Ajit Pawar said that senior party leaders will be consulted over disagreements.
"We have decided that each party will appoint two members to finalise the distribution and the senior party leaders will be consulted for the seats where there is disagreement," Pawar told the media.
All MVA leaders, meanwhile, have collectively debunked theories of the three parties mulling a 16-seats-each formula.
Expand3. Who Gets Shinde Faction Seats?
The Shiv Sena is adamant on not letting go of any of the 13 seats where its MPs defected to the Shinde faction, sources said.
A few of these seats, however, have been Congress bastions in the past.
A Congress leader from Maharashtra, on the condition of anonymity, said: "There are some of these seats the party feels the Sena won only due to its alliance with the BJP in 2019 but have originally been Congress strongholds."
A few of the seats that the Congress might be keen on as per sources:
Mumbai South Central: A Shiv Sena bastion since 1989, the Congress won it once in 2009 after fielding Dalit leader Eknath Gaikwad. The seat is currently being represented by Rahul Shewale who joined hands with Shinde last year.
Mumbai South: A Congress stronghold since 1984 except for 1996 and 1999 when Murli Deora lost it to the BJP. Before Arvind Sawant of the Shiv Sena bagged it twice in 2014 and 2019, Congress' Milind Deora won it twice in 2004 and 2009.
Ramtek: A clear contention has emerged on the Ramtek constituency, which was a Congress bastion since 1957 till Sena bagged it in 1999 and lost it just once later in 2009 to Congress' Mukul Wasnik. Currently being represented by Krupal Tumane, who is now with Shinde, Maharashtra Youth Congress chief Kunal Raut has publicly declared his wish to contest from the seat and has also started actively campaigning for it. "We have been contesting this seat until the last election and have worked hard. This is a Congress bastion, we won't let it go," he told TV9 Marathi last week.
The cracks in the MVA are out in the open, giving the ruling coalition in the state ammo to attack the alliance. CM Shinde on Tuesday took a jibe at the contrasting statements from leaders of the three parties calling the alliance "teen tigada, kaam bigada (three is a crowd)."
With many surveys pointing to advantage MVA in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, leaders of the three parties continue to hold internal talks to decide upon the stakes with all eyes on who blinks first.
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)
Expand
Who Gets the 'Big Brother' Status?
To understand this, a quick look at the numbers as per the 2019 Lok Sabha and Assembly polls in the state —
The NCP won 4/18 Lok Sabha seats (22%) it contested and 54/121 Assembly seats (45%).
The Congress won 1/25 Lok Sabha seats it contested (4%) and 44/147 Assembly seats (30%).
The Shiv Sena (UBT) performed better than both Congress and the NCP in both elections in 2019. It won 18/23 Lok Sabha seats it contested (78%) and 56/126 Assembly seats (44%).
The statistics for Thackeray, however, changed after Eknath Shinde split the party last year. He is now left with 6/18 Lok Sabha MPs and 17/56 MLAs the party had won in 2019.
The issue of the 'big brother' status emerged when Ajit Pawar in an address to party workers in Kolhapur on 20 May clearly staked claim on it.
"We are a constituent of the MVA. We have to keep the front strong. Your prominence within the MVA will remain only if you are strong. The Congress had more seats in every previous election. We had to play the role of the younger brother while allotting seats. But now, we have become the bigger brother than the Congress because they have 44 seats and we have 54 seats. Uddhav Thackeray had 56 MLAs. This is math," Ajit Pawar said.
Former Maharashtra chief minister and senior Congress leader Ashok Chavan, however, downplayed Pawar's comments on Tuesday saying that "there is no big brother or younger brother in the alliance, we are like triplets."
Who Gets More Seats?
The number of seats that the three parties will contest on out of the 48 seats is the second biggest point of contention between the three parties.
Questions are being raised after Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut in an address to the media last week said that the party will not give up the 18 seats it has in Maharashtra and one in Dadra and Nagar Haveli.
"We have 19 seats in the Lok Sabha already. We have won those seats, so those will remain with us. The NCP has four seats. Why will there be a discussion on these? The Congress has just one seat in Chandrapur. It is a different matter if people have switched sides later. But 18 seats in Maharashtra and one seat in Dadra and Nagar Haveli, this figure of 19 will remain as it is for us. I am just saying that this figure will remain as it is, this is not a demand," Raut said.
However, Maharashtra Congress chief Nana Patole on Tuesday said that the distribution of seats should take place on the basis of merit.
"The situation is different now than it was in 2014 and 2019. The Congress will review each seat by the first week of June and take a decision," Patole said.
Speaking to the media on 20 May, Ajit Pawar said that senior party leaders will be consulted over disagreements.
"We have decided that each party will appoint two members to finalise the distribution and the senior party leaders will be consulted for the seats where there is disagreement," Pawar told the media.
All MVA leaders, meanwhile, have collectively debunked theories of the three parties mulling a 16-seats-each formula.
Who Gets Shinde Faction Seats?
The Shiv Sena is adamant on not letting go of any of the 13 seats where its MPs defected to the Shinde faction, sources said.
A few of these seats, however, have been Congress bastions in the past.
A Congress leader from Maharashtra, on the condition of anonymity, said: "There are some of these seats the party feels the Sena won only due to its alliance with the BJP in 2019 but have originally been Congress strongholds."
A few of the seats that the Congress might be keen on as per sources:
Mumbai South Central: A Shiv Sena bastion since 1989, the Congress won it once in 2009 after fielding Dalit leader Eknath Gaikwad. The seat is currently being represented by Rahul Shewale who joined hands with Shinde last year.
Mumbai South: A Congress stronghold since 1984 except for 1996 and 1999 when Murli Deora lost it to the BJP. Before Arvind Sawant of the Shiv Sena bagged it twice in 2014 and 2019, Congress' Milind Deora won it twice in 2004 and 2009.
Ramtek: A clear contention has emerged on the Ramtek constituency, which was a Congress bastion since 1957 till Sena bagged it in 1999 and lost it just once later in 2009 to Congress' Mukul Wasnik. Currently being represented by Krupal Tumane, who is now with Shinde, Maharashtra Youth Congress chief Kunal Raut has publicly declared his wish to contest from the seat and has also started actively campaigning for it. "We have been contesting this seat until the last election and have worked hard. This is a Congress bastion, we won't let it go," he told TV9 Marathi last week.
The cracks in the MVA are out in the open, giving the ruling coalition in the state ammo to attack the alliance. CM Shinde on Tuesday took a jibe at the contrasting statements from leaders of the three parties calling the alliance "teen tigada, kaam bigada (three is a crowd)."
With many surveys pointing to advantage MVA in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, leaders of the three parties continue to hold internal talks to decide upon the stakes with all eyes on who blinks first.
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)