In 1999, Ballari – a mine-rich district in north Karnataka – was the arena for a political showdown between Sonia Gandhi and Sushma Swaraj. Gandhi won the elections that year, but over the next decade the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) managed to wrest power in the region.
Almost two decades later, in November 2018, Ballari will once again be closely watched in Karnataka and outside as a precursor of the crucial 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
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Ahead of the state Assembly polls in May earlier this year, BS Yeddyurappa and B Sriramalu of the BJP and CS Puttraju of the JD(S) had vacated their seats in Shivamoga, Ballari, and Mandya, respectively.
On Saturday, the Election Commission announced the bypolls in these three Lok Sabha constituencies on 3 November.
While Shivamoga and Mandya are considered strongholds of the BJP and the JD(S) respectively, the electoral battle for Ballari is expected to be a close one.
Two strongmen of the Congress and the BJP will be going head on during this byelection.
DK Shivakumar, who played a key role in ensuring the BJP was not allowed to form a government in Karnataka, is the district in-charge minister for Ballari. For the BJP, B Sriramalu, one of the mining barons of Ballari and the party’s go-to man in north Karnataka, will be leading the charge.
A Surprise By-Election
As the Lok Sabha elections are expected next year, the newly elected MPs will have a tenure of less than six months. Leaders of all three political parties have expressed their surprise over the Election Commission’s decision to announce a by-election for such a short term.
The Election Commission, however, pointed out that the seats would be vacant for more than a year if bypolls are not held, which would be against rules.
These three bypolls, according to political observers, won’t make a big change in the voting patterns in the state. However, Ballari might indicate the change of wind in the state since the Assembly elections.
The Candidates
In Ballari, the choice of the candidates remains unclear. However, several names have been doing the rounds in party circles over the past few days.
In the BJP camp, Sriramalu’s sister Shanta and his uncle Farkirappa are pitched as potential candidates, while from the Congress camp, B Nagendra, who was elected as an MLA during 2018 election, is said to be a candidate.
The JD(S) will not be contesting elections in Ballari.
The Congress has called for a meeting of the Planning Committee on Tuesday, 9 October, to finalise their candidates. The BJP is expected to hold a meeting by the end of the week.
However, according to sources, in their stronghold of Shivamoga, the BJP will be fielding Yeddyurappa’s elder son BY Raghavendra. The JD(S) is yet to decide their candidate for Mandya. According to party leaders, it will be a close associate of the Gowda family.
Bypolls to Bring More Trouble for Congress?
For the Congress, the bypoll isn’t just about winning Ballari and sending a positive message to its cadre. The bypoll threatens to restart a political instability in the party which was recently brought under control.
In the last week of August, a turf war between Shivakumar and Jarkiholi brothers – Satish and Ramesh – had threatened to bring down the government.
The bone of contention for Ramesh and Satish Jarkiholi was Shivakumar’s attempts to assert his influence in the districts in north Karnataka. The brothers, who have control of the politics of the region, had seen Shivakumar as a threat.
The conflict between Shivakumar and Jarkiholi brothers was resolved with the Congress high command promising to induct an MLA from Ballari to the Cabinet and make him the minister in-charge of Ballari.
But with Shivakumar leading the campaign in Ballari, there is fear of dissidence finding its way back to the Congress.
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