After the setback in Maharashtra, the BJP appears to be heading for another sub-par electoral performance in the upcoming Assembly elections in Jharkhand. According to CVoter tracker, the ruling BJP may fall well short of a majority in the state.
The survey predicts an extremely close contest between the BJP and the alliance forged by the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Congress, and Rashtriya Janata Dal.
According to CVoter’s tracker in November, the BJP can win around 33 seats out of 81 in Jharkhand, not far behind is the JMM-Congress alliance at a projected tally of 30 seats.
The CVoter survey predicts that Babulal Marandi’s Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) and All Jharkhand Students’ Union can play kingmakers, with a projected tally of six seats each.
In terms of vote share, the survey projects 33.3 percent for BJP and 31.2 percent for the UPA. The JVM appears to be emerging as a major spoiler, with a projected vote share of 7.7 percent. The AJSU is expected to get 4.6 percent of the votes.
In the Lok Sabha elections, JVM was an ally of the UPA and AJSU was with the BJP.
Anti-Incumbency Against Raghubar Das Govt
Another key takeaway from the survey is that there appears to be a massive anti-incumbency sentiment against the ruling BJP government led by Chief Minsiter Raghubar Das.
According to the tracker’s data from November, a little over 60 percent respondents said that they want to change the chief minister immediately.
What is interesting is that the resentment against the CM has increased as the campaign has progressed.
In September, 45.9 percent respondents said that they wanted Das to continue against 53.4 percent who wanted him replaced, a difference of 7.5 percentage points.
This gap increased to nearly 23 percentage points by November.
Then, 26 percent of the respondents directly blamed the state government for their problems. 11.2 percent blamed the chief minister, 6.5 percent blamed the Centre and 4.5 percent blamed the prime minister for their woes. All these would directly go against the BJP.
15.8 percent blamed their local MLA, which would harm BJP more than other parties given its strength in the Assembly.
Nearly 25 percent respondents said that unemployment and the state of businesses are the main issues for them these elections, followed by 17.5 percent who picked water supply. Roads and electricity have also emerged as key issues, indicating a negative perception of governance in the state.
Though Raghubar Das remains ahead of his rivals as the most popular CM choice in the state, his popularity has reduced as the campaign has progressed. But the gains haven’t gone to any one rival, with both Hemant Soren and Babulal Marandi catching up with Raghubar Das
The survey also reveals dissidence within BJP. The popularity of Das’ rival in BJP, Arjun Munda, has increased significantly in the last two months from less than two percent to over eight percent.
This indicates that one section of BJP might be pitching for Munda as CM, especially if BJP falls short of majority on its own.
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