The second and final phase of voting concluded for Jharkhand Assembly elections on Wednesday, 20 November. Hours later, the exit polls poured in and they seemed to be divided over which political party could get the majority.
While News24's Chanakya and Matrize predict a win for BJP and its allies, Axis My India suggests a win for INDIA bloc in Jharkhand.
News 24-Chanakya has stated a win for the NDA.
(Photo: The Quint)
Earlier in the day, the INDIA bloc and the NDA had locked horns with each other as the second round of polling in Jharkhand for 38 of the total 81 seats. The first phase took place on 13 November and the counting of votes for both phases is set for 23 November.
Let's look at what the exit polls suggest.
Vote-share projection for the parties, as per Chanakya.
(Photo: The Quint)
It is to be noted that this second phase will decide the electoral fate of Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren (JMM), his wife Kalpana Soren (JMM), and Leader of Opposition Amar Kumar Bauri (BJP) among other prominent candidates in the fray.
C-Voter has predicted a win for BJP in Jharkhand.
(Photo: The Quint)
A cumulative look at the predictions by some major exit polls.
(Photo: The Quint)
In the 2019 assembly elections, the JMM emerged victorious with 30 seats and the BJP secured 25 seats, down from 37 in 2014. The JMM-Congress-RJD alliance had a clean sweep with 47 seats
The last exit polls of 2019 were more or less accurate. Back then, India Today-Axis My India gave an edge to the JMM-Congress-led UPA. It said that UPA would win 43 seats and BJP would win 27.
Will BJP's 'Ghuspethiye' Bogey Make An Impact?
Jharkhand's elections come with the challenge of balancing alliances and addressing local issues. Hemant Soren, who is backed by Congress-backed JMM coalition, has campaigned on promises of development and rights for tribal communities.
There are 28 reserved seats in Jharkhand for ST candidates and 9 seats reserved for SC candidates.
The BJP's campaign in Santhal Pargana has focused on tribal and identity politics, especially with a shrill campaign against alleged ' Bangladeshi infiltrators.'
When The Quint analysed Himanta Biswa Sarma's communal speeches this election campaign, it was evident that he focused on 'Ghuspethiye' that have infiltrated into the state, levelled allegations against JMM for protecting them. BJP has propagated that the Hindu and tribal communities are in danger, especially the Santhal Pargana region.
The region, with 18 seats in the 81-member state assembly, is dominated by tribal groups, who along with Muslims form about 50% of Santhal Pargana’s population and have traditionally been voting for anti-BJP parties.
Few days before the second polling, BJP's Jharkhand handle on X (formerly Twitter) controversial video. The video showed a Muslim family barging into a Hindu's family's house and taking over. The Opposition also filed a complaint with the EC which took notice of the video and instructed the handle to take it down.
On the other hand, Hemant Soren is banking on its government's flagship scheme, Maiya Samman Yojna (JMMSY) and its strong local connection with the tribal community to fight the anti-incumbency wave. However, they have been criticised for not doing much for either employment or tackling paper leaks.
BJP had also introduced the Gogo Didi scheme, promising ₹2,100 per month to all women in the state. The party has pledged to transfer money to beneficiaries from the first month after coming to power.
A total of 1.23 crore voters, including 60.79 lakh women and 147 third-gender electors, are eligible to exercise their franchise on Wednesday, the officials said.
During the second phase of assembly elections in Jharkhand, JMM leader Kalpana Soren expressed strong optimism on Wednesday about the INDIA bloc's electoral prospects, stating with certainty their forthcoming government formation in the state.
Kalpana commended the performance of Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren, highlighting his effective leadership in the role of Chief Minister.
Voter turnout of 67.59% registered in 38 assembly seats till 5 PM in second and final phase of Jharkhand polls.
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)