Coming as a big win for Jharkhand Mukti Morcha's Hemant Soren and his allies this election, the party and its allies have managed to retain the state for a second consecutive term. Hemant Soren has also won from Barhait constituency by over 39,000 votes. As of 7 PM, the Election Commission of India's website reported JMM leading in 34 seats while its ally, the Congress, was leading in 16.
Jharkhand has had a history of political turmoil, fragmentation and frequent changes of Chief Ministers. JMM's Hemant was also being jailed earlier this year. BJP had banked on leveraging anti-incumbency, corruption charges against Hemant and making inroads into the tribal vote-bank.
But JMM has managed to render a huge defeat to BJP and fared well in its performance. Kalpana Soren, Hemant's wife, also contributed in revitalising the party's performance on ground. She has also won from the Gandey seat in Jharkhand with over 17,000 votes.
“We passed exam of democracy in Jharkhand, will finalise strategy post election results," said Hemant Soren while addressing a press conference in Ranchi.
Meanwhile, Kalpana also told ANI, "This government is the Abua government, this government is the government of the people of Jharkhand. The people have expressed their unwavering faith in Hemant Soren..."
But what were the reasons that led towards victory for JMM-led alliance and an electoral defeat for BJP?
Hemant Soren's Incarceration
The arrest of Hemant Soren seemed to have backfired on the BJP.
Earlier this year, he was jailed for 5 months for an alleged land scam case. He resigned hours after being arrested on corruption charges, but it seems the sympathy from the incarceration has struck a chord with the people of Jharkhand, especially his already established, strong connection with Adivasi voters.
"Jail ke tale tut gaye, Hemant Soren chuth gaye" was the slogan raised by his supporters and JMM saw his arrest as a dent on Adivasi honor.
Soren had brought up the fact that he was falsely implicated and this has inadvertently culminated into political ramifications in the election.
BJP's Communally Charged Campaign Failed
In last elections, JMM got 30 seats while BJP settled with only 25.
This time, BJP tried hard to cut into and expand their base among tribals with slogans like "Batenge toh katenge," "ek hain toh safe hain," "ghuspethiye," "love jihad" and "land jihad."
Right from Assam's chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and Home Minister Amit Shah, all of them pushed the rhetoric of "Bangladeshi infiltrators."
After losing Jharkhand, Sarma posted on X how the defeat was "deeply painful for him personally."
BJP claimed that 'maati, beti and roti' is in peril due to 'infiltrators' marrying tribal women and seizing their lands and resources. BJP had also shared a deeply anti-Muslim and hateful ad which attracted censure from The Election Commission of India.
To counter this alleged outsider influx in tribal areas, BJP had also promised NRC and Uniform Civil Code that would be implemented if they would have won.
JMM's 'Maiya Samman Yojana' Push
The Jharkhand politics was also dominated by women welfare schemes this election as the state has an astounding 12.8 million women voters.
It seems that JMM's Maiya Samman Yojana stood as a better counter to BJP's 'Gogo Didi' scheme, both aiming to woo women voters.
JMM offered Rs 1,000 to underprivileged women in the scheme. In response to JMM, BJP said that through their 'Gogo Didi' scheme, they promised Rs 2,100 per month to all women in the state. BJP pledged to transfer money to beneficiaries from the first month after coming to power but it looks like it didn't work.
There was also a significant turnout of women voters as it was higher than men in over 85% out of the total 81 assembly constituencies, according to ECI.
The Tribal Backlash
There are 28 out of the 81 seats which are reserved for Scheduled Tribes and nine are for Scheduled Castes. Adivasis, who make up a quarter of the state's population, are vital to putting together a winning social collation. During the Lok Sabha polls, BJP had lost all 5 tribal-dominated seats - Khunti, Singhbhum, Lohardaga, Rajmahal, and Dumka.
Most tribal concentrated regions are Kolhan, Santhal Pargana as well as South Chhotanagpur. In ST seats, JMM and Congress, both seem to have made more headway.
BJP also tried to win over tribal voters by bringing back former CM Babulal Marandi and getting JMM-turncoat Champai Soren on their side. But it doesn't seem to have succeeded in countering Hemant Soren's Adivasi-centered campaign.
The Jairam Mahato Factor
The rise of Jairam Mahato of Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantrikari Morcha may have also affected the BJP adversely. A young OBC Kurmi leader, he is also called 'Tiger Jairam.'
He contested from two seats: Dumri and Bermo. The ECI website reported, as of 7 PM that Mahato won from Dumri but lost Bermo constituency to INC's Kumar Jaimangal.
Mahatos, who are Kurmis, form around 14% of Jharkhand’s population, making them the largest OBC group in the state.
His party may have won over a section of Kurmis who were disenchanted with the Soren government. This vote may have otherwise gone to the BJP and its ally AJSU (All Jharkhand Student's Union).
Some other key candidates such as Babulal Marandi won from Dhanwar seat, Champai Soren won from Seraikella and Irfan Ansari of Congress won against Hemant Soren's sister-in-law Sita Soren in Jamtara seat.
Back in 2019, JMM won 30 seats while BJP won 25. In 2014, JMM won 19 and BJP managed to win 37 seats.
While most exit polls suggested a victory for NDA, few others such as Axis My India had projected 25 seats for BJP and 53 seats for JMM-Congress alliance.
The sixth Jharkhand Assembly election was held in two-phases on 13 and 20 November. It saw a record turnout of 67.74% — the highest since the state’s creation in 2000.
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