In Jammu and Kashmir, where elections are being held after a decade, the National Conference-Congress-CPI(M) alliance has staged a comeback and is set to form the new government after its combined figure crossed the halfway mark in the 95-seat Assembly on Tuesday, 8 October.
According to Election Commission data, the Farooq Abdullah-led NC has won 42 seats. The Congress, in partnership with it's ally, is ahead in six seats and the CPI-M won one.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), meanwhile, has won 29 seats and the Mehbooba Mufti-led People's Democratic Party (PDP) has been reduced to just three seats. The magic number for forming the government is 46.
Omar Abdullah, the third-generation politician from NC, is set to become the next Chief Minister of J&K and the first since the abrogation of Article 370.
Despite exit polls predicting a close contest, the INDIA bloc has secured a significant margin ahead of other parties with a combined vote share of 35.4 percent. What's interesting is the individual performance of parties in the two main regions of J&K— Jammu and Kashmir Valley.
EC data shows that the INDIA bloc has performed better in the Kashmir region and the parts of Jammu where Muslims are present in sizable numbers. In contrast, the BJP has managed to retain most of its strongholds in the Jammu region, especially in Hindu-dominated areas.
The Quint takes a closer look at the region-wise breakdown of the election results.
Kashmir Valley: NC Dominates Central and North, PDP Fails
While the Kashmir Valley region constitutes of 47 Assembly seats, 43 seats are in the Jammu region.
Out of the 47 seats, the INDIA bloc has won or is leading in 39 seats. the National Conference secured 34 seats.
Till date, the Congress has not won more than five seats in this region in the past. Following a similar pattern, the Congress won exactly five seats in Wagoora-Kreeri, Central Shalteng, Dooru, Kokernag, and Bandipora— areas where it has consistently had presence.
All the three seats won by the JKPDP are from the Valley.
The BJP, which was hoping to make to make inroads into this region, failed to do so.
Let's further break the Valley region to three segments: Central, North, and South Kashmir.
Central Kashmir has always been a stronghold for NC. The party swept the region winning 14 out of 15 seats and Congress winning one.
Out of the eight seats within Srinagar, which is NC's bastion, the party won seven seats. In 2008, NC won eight seats in Srinagar and five in 2014.
Former J&K Chief Minister Omar Abdullah won both the Ganderbal and Budgam seats by a huge margin.
South Kashmir
This region comprises of Pulwama, Anantnag, Kulgam and Shopian districts, and once used to be a PDP stronghold. But now the PDP is facing one of its worst performances.
Out of the 16 assembly seats in this segment, PDP managed to hold onto Pulwama and Tral but lost key seats in Anantnag, Kulgam, and Shopian.
PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti's daughter Iltija Mufti lost to NC veteran Bashir Ahmad Shah Veeri by over 9,500 votes in the Srigufwara-Bijbehara constituency.
In Dooru, former minister and Congress leader Ghulam Ahmad Mir won. Congress also won from the Anantnag constituency.
The National Conference secured 10 out of 12 seats in this region.
The lone seat won by Communist Party of India (Marxist) was from Kulgam.
North Kashmir
North Kashmir, which comprises of 16 seats across Baramulla, Kupwara and Bandipore districts, reflects the entire gamut of Kashmir politics. From separatists to NC and PDP, most parties have a presence in this region.
North Kashmir was an NC stronghold before the emergence of the PDP in 1999. In the last Assembly elections held in 2014, the NC’s tally dropped further down to three while the PDP managed to get seven.
Both Engineer Rashid-led Awami Ittehad Party and People's Conference started from, and have their core bases in, Kupwara district, but failed to make a mark.
Out of the 16 seats, NC won 11 seats, while the Congress bagged two.
In Uri, NC's Sajjad Shafi defeated Independent candidate Taj Mohi Ud Din by 11,508 votes. In Gurez, NC's Nazir Ahmad Khan defeated BJP's Faqeer Mohammad Khan by over a 1,000 votes.
PDP managed to secure after its candidate Mohammad Fayaz won the Kupwara seat.
Jammu and Kashmir People's Conference candidate Sajad Gani Lone won in Handwara by over 29,000 votes.
Engineer Rashid's brother Khursheed Ahmad Sheikh from AIP won in Langate by a margin of 1,602 votes, gaining 25,984 votes. He finished ahead of NC's Irfan Sultan Pandithpuri.
Note: Out of the 34 AIP candidates in fray, only one of them won.
Candidates backed by the banned Jamaat-e- Islami did not win any seats in the region.
The BJP, on the other hand, was unable to win even a single seat in the region. This area has been it's weakness and was evident during the 2024 Lok Sabha election when the party did not contest any of the three Parliamentary segments.
Jammu Region: BJP Sweeps 39 Out of 43 Seats
Jammu was once the stronghold of the Congress, but lost its ground since 2014. Since 2014, the BJP has scored a hat-trick in both the Lok Sabha seats.
The BJP has maintained its dominance in the Hindu-dominated Jammu region by winning 29 of 43 assembly seats. It won in several constituencies including Bhaderwah, Billawar, Bishnah, Chenani, Akhnoor, Doda West, Hiranagar, Jammu East, and more.
Jammu has three Muslim-majority districts namely Doda, Kishtwar, and Rajouri.
Out of the 11 seats in these districts, the BJP won five seats: Kishtwar, Padder-Nagseni, Bhaderwah, Doda West, Kalakote-Sunderbani.
The Aam Aadmi Party made its debut in J&K through this region, with Mehraj Malik winning against BJP’s Gajay Singh Rana in Doda by 4,770 votes. The party had shown its presence in Chenab Valley region of Jammu province when Malik had organised a massive rally in Doda town in March 2022.
The NC only won seven seats.
The Congress, which was hoping to regain its lost ground in the Jammu division, hasn't been able to stop the saffron party since 2014. It secured only one seat in the Rajouri assembly constituency.
However, the BJP lost two key Hindu-majority seats: Bani and Ramban this time.
According to EC data, Dr Rameshwar Singh, an Independent candidate, defeated BJP's Jewan Lal from Bani by a margin of 2,000 votes. Lal had won from this seat in 2014.
In Ramban, BJP's Rakesh Singh Thakur was pushed to the third spot. JKNC's Arjun Singh Raju beat the BJP candidate by over 9,000 votes.
Apart from this, what's interesting to note is the performance of Independent candidates. With independents winning seven seats, several others have cut into NC's vote share.
While two former NC leaders – Shabir Ahmad Kullay, Muzaffar Iqbal Khan – won from Shopian and Thannamandi respectively, two former Congress leaders – Satish Sharma and Choudhary Mohammad Akram – won from Chhamb and Surankote. Additionally, Payare Lal Sharma won from Inderwal.
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)