The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seems to have proven exit polls and pre-poll surveys wrong by taking the lead in Haryana. While the final results are yet to be declared, it is clear that the BJP has done much better than expected. At the time of writing this piece, the BJP was leading in a majority of seats in the state.
Despite facing anti-incumbency, the BJP has managed to increase its vote share in the state and contain the rise of the Congress.
The BJP's lead is all the more surprising because in terms of vote share, both parties are almost the same.
So, what explains the BJP's resilience and what went wrong for the Congress?
1. BJP Increases Vote Share, Retains Bastions
The BJP's vote share went up from 36.5 percent in 2019 to around 39 percent in 2024. Increasing vote share despite being in power for a decade is no small achievement. Of course, the Congress' vote share increased by much more – from 28.1 percent in 2019 to over 39 percent in 2024. But it seems to have been at the expense of JJP, INLD, BSP and Independents and not the BJP.
The Congress failed to win over BJP supporters, and it also couldn't dent BJP's bastions in the GT Road region as well as Faridabad and Gurugram.
2. Non-Jat Consolidation
The increase in the BJP's vote share seems to indicate a consolidation of non-Jat votes, especially Punjabis, OBCs, Ahirs, Brahmins, Rajputs and Banias. The party has done well in areas where non-Jats are there in sizable numbers – such as the GT Road belt where Punjabis are dominant, Ahirwal belt where Ahirs are dominant, and Faridabad where Gujjars hold sway.
The BJP's leadership in the state is also from these demographic groups - former CM Manohar Lal Khattar is a Punjabi and his success Nayab Singh Saini is from the OBC Saini community.
It seems that the Jat community's vocal assertions against the BJP during the campaign, seem to have triggered a counter consolidation of non-Jat groups. It is possible that they may have feared the return of Jat domination if Bhupinder Singh Hooda returns as CM.
3. Split in Jat and Dalit Votes
The Congress' calculations were too dependent on consolidation of Jat and Dalit votes, and it lacked a face from OBC and Punjabi communities. But the party failed to consolidate the votes of even these communities. The INLD-BSP alliance secured over six percent votes, most of which would have been from these two communities. A small chunk of votes from these caste groups also went to the JJP-Azad Samaj Party alliance and Independents.
This affected the Congress' chances in a number of seats.
4. Lack of Coordination Between Congress Leaders
The Congress remained faction-ridden during the course of the campaign and the sense of unity that was seen during the Lok Sabha elections, was missing in the Assembly polls. Top leaders like Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Kumari Selja weren't seen campaigning together to the extent they should have. This is in sharp contrast to the manner in which Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar made it a point to appear united during the Karnataka election campaign last year, despite their differences.
Another problem was the Congress' failure to rein in rebel candidates, who ended up causing a great deal of harm to the party.
5. Ground Game
A major factor behind the BJP's success is the sheer ability of the party's rank and file to ensure that their voters reach the polling booth and vote for them. The party seems to have tactically left out seats where it had little or no chance of winning and focused greatly on turning closely fought seats to their advantage.
