An analysis of three pre-poll surveys by NDTV reveals that while the BJP might secure a victory in the upcoming Gujarat assembly elections, the margin of victory will probably be smaller than expected.
The analysis, a consolidation of the three pre-election opinion polls, predicts a win for the BJP in Gujarat, with an average of 105-106 seats in its favour.
The India TV opinion poll predicts that BJP will get between 106 to 116 seats, while the Congress will win 63 to 73 seats, with other parties and independents gaining the reaming 2-4 seats.
The Times Now-VMR survey sees the BJP gaining a 111 seat victory, with the Congress polling 68 seats and others gaining 3 seats.
The ABP-CSDS Survey, in its third and final survey, predicted a close battle for the two rival parties with BJP polling 91-99 seats and Congress winning 78-86 seats.
Of the three surveys, the India TV survey puts the BJP closest to the victory it attained in the 2012 elections with 116 seats, reports NDTV. That year, Congress won 60 seats.
BJP President Amit Shah has set a target of 150+ seats in Gujarat, which has been a BJP bastion for the last 22 years. However, the opinion polls conducted so far indicate that while the BJP is most likely to win, Shah’s 150+ dream might not materialise.
Rahul Gandhi’s aggressive campaigning in the state has put a damper on the BJP’s hopes of gaining a massive margin, while the crowds at the rallies of young leaders like Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mevani have managed to make the saffron party sit up and take notice.
Gujarat will go to polls in two phases on 9 and 14 December. The results will be declared on 18 December.
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