BJP Likely to Win UP Election If SP Splits, Says CSDS Director

CSDS Director Sanjay Kumar is of the opinion that any split in the Muslim vote will benefit the BJP.

The stage is set for 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections. Polls for 403 seats in UP will be held in seven phases between 11 February and 8 March.

All eyes are on Uttar Pradesh as the outcome of the Assembly polls will set the tone for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Adding to the drama is the rift within the state’s ruling Yadav clan, which has been making headlines for the last few months.

Sanjay Kumar, professor and director of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies and Deputy Director of Lokniti, joined a Facebook Live with Sanjay Pugalia, Editorial Director, The Quint, to discuss the extremely crucial Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections and its political ramifications.

Hung Assembly or Two-Party Contest?

Sanjay Kumar was of the opinion that if the Samajwadi Party (SP) could manage to stay undivided, the polls could be expected to be a face-off between SP and BJP. This he says is due to the recent trend of voters voting decisively in favour of one political party.

Who Benefits if The SP Splits?

Definitely the BJP, Sanjay Kumar said. The same thing had happened in Jharkhand and even in Jammu & Kashmir, he said. Whenever the BJP fights a divided opponent, it benefits. He was of the opinion that, any split in the Muslim vote will benefit the BJP. So while the vote share threshold may remain low, we could still see BJP winning maximum number of seats.

On Caste-Based Votes

Caste-based appeal does not suit the BJP’s narrative and Sanjay Kumar predicted that if the BJP tries to engage in the caste slugfest, it cannot win. This is  because in UP, people tend to vote along traditional lines. The Yadavs stay with the Samajwadi Party, Dalits vote for the BSP and the upper caste vote goes to the BJP.

He said that in the 2014 General Election, the non-Jatavs were seen to have voted in very large numbers for the BJP.

BSP – The Underdog

One cannot simply write off Mayawati.

If we look at previous opinion polls, the BSP as a rule is always predicted to win less than they actually do. What will happen on the day of polling no one can actually predict, says Kumar. But all three political parties – BSP (Dalits), BJP (Upper caste) and SP (Yadavs) – are aware that they need others to join them apart from their core support base.

Support Bases in Eastern and Western UP

The BJP is strongest in western UP which goes to vote in the first phase of the election. We saw what happened during the 2014 General Election too. When the first phase of the election was concluded in western UP, there was a perception in the media that the BJP is set to win. The BJP should be very happy with the Election Commission calendar because they could not have had a better opening in UP. The alignment of the date of the budgetary session of 2016-17 which is reportedly 1 February also gives the BJP a head start, Sanjay Pugalia said.

Silence on Note Ban

The narrative of demonetisation was Modi’s moral fight against black money. But after reports of rural distress over cash, the BJP has tried to spin it as a fight between the rich and the poor. Note ban did not play out as Modi intended, he says. Which is why Modi did not mention note ban even once during his 2 January speech. But he did mention – don’t half-heartedly vote for the BJP. Modi perhaps knows that the BJP could emerge as the number 1 party but it could still be a hung assembly.

Who Will be the CM Candidate of BJP

Yogi Adityanath has support in eastern UP but the same support does not resonate across the state. Varun Gandhi has more support across UP but its too low to make him a candidate of any standing. Rajnath Singh could emerge as the most suitable CM candidate if the BJP wins. But Modi could prove us all wrong once again as he has made some unconventional choices for CM in Haryana with Khattar and in Jharkhand with Raghobardas.