Demonetisation: Modi Does a Kejriwal With His ‘Gareeb Aadmi’ Pitch

Is demonetisation a pitch to the ‘gareeb aadmi’ to achieve a Congress-mukt bharat in 2019?

BJP was considered to be an urban, educated, brahmin-baniya party. But this bloc alone did not create the ‘Modi wave’ in 2014.

The BJP managed a clean sweep of the Lok Sabha (282/543 seats) with only 31 percent of the total vote share. This was possible only because in addition to its core voter base, others, like OBCs, Dalits and Muslims in urban, rural and semi-rural constituencies also voted for Modi.

Never before, not even in 1998-1999 had the BJP won this add-on vote. So with the 2019 general election still two-and-a-half years away, Modi announced the demonetisation of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes with a clear aim to consolidate the ‘other’ vote. That of the urban poor, rural poor and lower-income groups in semi-rural areas.

The Kejriwal Effect

“Arvind Kejriwal has been doing a similar exercise in Delhi,” says Professor Sanjay Kumar, Director, CSDS. Although the Aam Aadmi Party chief promised an end to “extortion and raid racket” by the VAT department, he also positioned himself as anti-establishment, a perennial crusader against the rich and the corrupt to cultivate a strong support base amongst the poor. It’s this balance that Modi will be looking to strike once again, on a national level, come 2019.

Modi’s Gareeb Aadmi Pitch

Slow, deliberate, almost school teacher-like. Prime Minister Modi’s short-notice address last evening was aimed at the “average honest Indian”. He referred to the “poor auto driver who returns a bag full of gold left behind by a passenger”, “the taxi driver who returns a mobile phone left behind by a passenger even if he has to spend fuel to look for its rightful owner” and “the vegetable seller who returns the extra money he may have accidentally charged.” Simply put, Modi’s pitch was to the gareeb aadmi who does not have the means or the intent to deceive the system.

But What Will Happen to BJP’s Core Voter Base?

“What option do they have?” asks Professor Sanjay Kumar. “They’re bound to be very very unhappy with this demonetisation policy, but I doubt they will switch loyalties to the Congress especially when you consider the fact that the election is still two-and-a-half years away. When the Congress won the election in 2004 it was not because the upper class and the rich voted for them.”

In terms of numbers, the poor account for 1/4th or 20-25 percent of India’s total electorate. Compare this to the trader community, who barely account for 2 percent of the total votes polled in a Lok Sabha election. Their electoral impact, though crucial for optics, is muted.

I don’t see any traders suffering any major losses, perhaps some harassment and inconvenience. Principally, it is a measure to crackdown on fake currency and it should be welcomed as such. But everyone has bought into Modi’s self-created image of being anti-black money. Given the provisions, I don’t see it harming too many traders.

Yogendra Yadav, Political Scientist

Political Impact

Demonetisation of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes is bound to create pre-poll challenges for any political party that was caught off guard by the prime minister’s announcement last evening.

Seizures during pre-poll raids indicate that political parties and candidates depend heavily on cash to drive election campaigns. Cost of fuel, hoardings, banners, manpower, etc., is all met with cash. Political parties will have to redraw election strategies, but there are solutions, suggests Yogendra Yadav.

It could partly hurt those hoarding stacks of notes for the UP and Punjab elections. If someone wants to bribe voters, nothing’s stopping them from disbursing the ‘invalid’ Rs 500 notes before 30 December. The value of that Rs 500 note may decrease, but it’s not completely useless.

Yogendra Yadav, Political Scientist

Political Gamble

More than black money hoarders, demonetisation could hurt those who’ve been stacking their life savings in cash. It could also alienate the gareeb aadmi, the very constituency Modi is trying to woo, because they primarily deal in the cash economy. Despite the government’s attempts at projecting Jan Dhan Yojana as a success story, there still are scores of Indians who still don’t own a bank account.

Politically speaking, demonetisation has made for a successful propaganda campaign, but electorally speaking it’s a big gamble for Modi that could still backfire.