The latest CVoter pre-poll survey of March 2019 for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections has predicted the BJP-led NDA falling just short of the majority mark of 272, winning 264 seats. Meanwhile, the UPA has been predicted to get 141 seats out of 543 in total. The other parties have been projected to get 138 seats.
Party-wise, while the BJP is projected to get 220 seats, the Congress is predicted to win in 86 seats, up from 44 in the 2014 elections.
While the NDA total includes the Shiv Sena tally, the UPA total includes the Janata Dal (Secular) tally, the survey noted.
Now, if the UPA is to stitch post-poll alliances in the states of Assam (AIUDF), Kerala (LDF), Uttar Pradesh (SP+BSP+RLD) and West Bengal (TMC), its total tally would increase to 226 seats, the survey said. Meanwhile, if the NDA is to stitch up post-poll alliances, its tally would go up from 264 to 301.
The Importance of UP
The seat tally cited above also takes into account that there will be a mahagathbandhan (alliance between Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal) in Uttar Pradesh, which is predicted to get 47 out of 80 seats in the state.
However, in the event that there is no mahagathbandhan, the picture would be quite different in the Lok Sabha, with the NDA winning 307 seats, the UPA winning 139 and Others 97.
If there is no mahagathbandhan, the NDA is expected to be the biggest winner in UP, getting 72 seats in a repeat of BJP's performance in the last general elections.
Meanwhile, the SP would be reduced to just four seats, while the BSP and the UPA both would get two each in the state.
Notably, these latest numbers from a pre-election survey come after the Pulwama terror attack and the air strikes across the LoC in Balakot.
In an earlier ABP-CVoter survey from January, the NDA was predicted to get 233 seats, while the UPA was predicted to settle for 167 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
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