Chetan Bhagat, You Can’t ‘Solve’ India’s Vote Bank With Equations

Chetan Bhagat’s math equation to understand India’s vote bank politics is reductive and inaccurate.

On 20 February, Chetan Bhagat took on the hydra-headed monster that is Indian votebank politics. Snide references to JNU aside, this was the crux of his argument:

Essentially, Indian politics is governed by the equation: D+M>H. D refers to Dalits, or rather all lower caste voters. You can even call it the Downtrodden vote. M refers to the Muslim vote. Again, if you prefer political correctness, you can call it the Minority vote. H refers to the upper caste Hindu vote. The greater than sign means that the Downtrodden plus Minority vote is always greater than the upper caste Hindu vote.

Ye....s but no. This equation is not wrong, per se, but it is as accurate as saying that multiplication is, in fact, addition. D+M>H is true generally, but Chetan Bhagat, my chosen adversary, you’ll find that you’ll have trouble applying it universally, across all 29 states in the country.

Sure, the number of Dalits and Muslims far outweigh the number of upper-caste Hindus in the country and it makes logical sense for political parties to appease communities with the maximum potential voters. In as much as this is true, Chetan Bhagat, I’ll give it to you, but no more.

The Minority Is Not A Monolith

Deciding that the Muslims are the only minority in the country is not only politically incorrect, it is wrong when one takes into consideration regional politics in certain states. Yes, numerically and at the national level, Muslims constitute 14.2 percent of the population. They are the largest minority community in the country. They are not, however, the ONLY minorities; there are states where other religious minorities exert significant influence.

Kerala

In Kerala, 26.56 percent of the population is Muslim, and 18.38 percent are Christians. So, while Muslims continue to be the largest religious minorities, the Christians are a smaller, but formidable presence – one that political parties cannot ignore. Chetan Bhagat, in Kerala, ‘M’ in your equation cannot stand for Muslims alone.

The Curious Case of West Bengal

In Malda, a Muslim protest rally turned violent and riots broke out in Kaliachak. Many allege that Mamata Banerjee’s government was as good as complicit – the aftermath of the violence was quickly swept under the carpet and the government generally looked the other way. Mamata Banerjee had to appease her Muslim vote base. Why?

Because in Malda, at least, the Muslims, by virtue of numbers only, are not the minority; the Hindus are. And Chetan Bhagat, if your equation is based on simple arithmetic, your Muslim/Minority equivalence doesn’t hold.

Haryana’s Well-To-Do OBCs

The agricultural Jat community in various north Indian states has demanded inclusion into the OBC category, despite not meeting any of the requirements necessary for consideration. If we ignore for a moment that a largely well-intentioned system can be easily overridden because... politics, we have another issue on our hands, pertinent to Bhagat’s math problem.

The Jats have reservation under the OBC category in seven states. The Haryanvi Jats are fighting for their ‘right’ to reservation as well, their chosen method of protest making them decidedly unpopular. In Gujarat, the Patels, a privileged caste, are fighting for reservation.

Caste distinctions are porous; social mobility has largely been a cause for national relief and political one-upmanship. In a hideous parody of the system, India’s privileged classes are fighting for regressive mobility and a chance to exploit the system.

Who then are India’s ‘Downtrodden’, Mr Bhagat? The term has ceased to mean anything and in a number of states, ‘backward class’ is an umbrella term for a number of socially diverse and economically heterogeneous communities, often with nothing in common.

D, M And H Are Religious and Political Divisions Only in Theory

I reiterate: in theory, your equation works fine, Mr Bhagat. However, your categories are vague; there are entirely too many exceptions to the rule for us to accept your mathematical model as accurate or representative. If an equation is only a poor approximation of fact; one that can be applied only conditionally, tell me, Mr Bhagat, was it ever worth the math?