Cauvery Water Row: Can INDIA Partners Congress & DMK Come Out of This Unscathed?

The BJP has much to cash in on, foremost being the undeniable fact that Congress and DMK are 'INDIA' partners.

The Cauvery water dispute between Karnataka and Tamil Nadu hit a fever pitch on Tuesday, 26 September, with farmers and pro-Kannada groups staging a Bengaluru Bandh, backed by Opposition parties in Karnataka – the BJP and JD(S), who are now allies.

The dispute has been a long-standing one, and Tuesday's bandh was triggered by the Cauvery Water Management Authority's (CWMA's) previous direction to the Congress-led Karnataka government to release 5,000 cusecs to Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-ruled Tamil Nadu for an additional 15 days from 13 September.

On Tuesday, the CWMA asked the state to release 3,000 cusecs (from 28 September) for 15 days.

The BJP and the JD(S) have much to cash in on amid the dispute, the foremost being the undeniable fact that the ruling parties in both states are partners in the 'INDIA' alliance.

From mocking the 'INDIA' bloc for its "inability to resolve the dispute between its partners" to accusing the Congress of "ceding to the DMK's demands" to keep the alliance intact, the BJP has come out with all guns blazing.

The Congress and DMK, meanwhile, have emphasised and re-emphasised that they have their respective states' interests at heart. So, the questions really are:

Will the 'INDIA' bloc stay intact after the row – and will this issue affect the Congress' and DMK's prospects in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls?

What Have the Congress & DMK Said?

First, let's take a look at how the Congress in Karnataka and the DMK in Tamil Nadu have dealt with the dispute.

After the CWMA's previous order, the states moved the Supreme Court, which declined to intervene. Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, all the while, has been maintaining that the state doesn't have enough water to give Tamil Nadu.

He also called out the Opposition parties for "politicising the issue for electoral gains," and demanded that Prime Minister Narendra Modi intervene and come up with a 'distress formula' for both states. "Whenever there is no rain, there is distress in both the states. Then, we have to share the distress," he said, placing some of the responsibility on the Centre.

On the other hand, Karnataka Deputy CM DK Shivakumar – who also holds the portfolio of Major and Medium Irrigation – said:

"...as a Minister, I'm unable to say anything, as I have to respect the Court, and also safeguard the people. My situation and that of the government is like a Catch-22 situation – between the devil and the deep blue sea. Whatever it is, the government will have to protect the interests of the state."

Even so, Karnataka has been releasing some amount of water to Tamil Nadu, and the state has received 7,000 cusecs since 13 September, TN Water Resources Minister Duraimurugan said on Tuesday.

Duraimurugan had earlier targeted Karnataka for "rejecting TN's suggestions" regarding the water dispute. But on Tuesday, he, too, pointed out that it was important to respect the apex court's authority and its judgment, taking a potshot at the BJP for supporting the bandh in Bengaluru.

What Does This Mean?

Both the Congress and DMK have somewhat been diplomatic and careful about the issue, as both of them are part of the 'INDIA' alliance, Prof Chandan Gowda, Ramakrishna Hegde Chair Professor at ISEC, Bengaluru, tells The Quint.

"The Karnataka Congress has not issued any strident statements. A couple of DMK politicians have done that, but they have not directly addressed the Congress in Karnataka per se. Both parties have dealt with it as a state-versus-state issue, rather than a party-versus-party issue," he opines.

Prof Gowda added that both parties have "also tried to diffuse the situation by asking Modi to interfere, asserting that it is not just the states that have a role in the dispute." They're basically trying not to let the NDA have an advantage over them.

Moreover, "Siddaramaiah may release water saying he has no option but to obey the CWMA and the Supreme Court's orders. To that extent, he has some escape value," says senior journalist Madhavan Narayanan.

He opines that the 'INDIA' partners may have a "tacit understanding, wherein they are both seen fighting for their respective states but do not take it to a point of ugly confrontation."

"Bullets will be fired from over the shoulders of the CWMA and not the parties themselves. The parties could also blame the BJP at the Centre if something goes wrong. They could even make it a Centre-versus-state issue, depending on the opportunities and optics."

Madhavan Narayanan

Congress Has More To Lose Than DMK

With the states' Opposition parties capitalising on the issue, experts say that if they're successful, the Congress in Karnataka has more to lose than the DMK in Tamil Nadu.

This is primarily because of the JD(S), whose stronghold has been the Mandya belt – one of the major agricultural regions of Karnataka – and its recently forged alliance with the BJP. In the recent Assembly elections, Mandya, which is also a Vokkaliga heartland, had given its support to DK Shivakumar, a Vokkaliga himself.

"But in light of JD(S)-BJP alliance – and considering that JD(S) is a Vokkaliga-dominated party which has a strong farmer agenda and presence in the Mandya belt – they will try to embarrass Siddaramaiah with this issue, to the extent that the JD(S) may use this to boost its influence over the Mandya belt," argues Narayanan.

"The fact is that Siddaramaiah needs to score more points than Stalin. And DK Shivakumar also needs to show he is doing a lot for the region because he is also a Vokkaliga. For the general elections, the Congress will want to keep the Mandya belt under him."

Madhavan Narayanan

The second aspect is that Karnataka is important to the Congress because this is where the party has a comeback trail.

"As far as the Congress is concerned, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Karnataka are extremely important in terms of numbers. They are unlikely to win Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat, and the other allies of 'INDIA' have considerable presence in other major states," Narayanan adds.

But in Tamil Nadu, the situation is different.

Firstly, because the primary Opposition party, AIADMK, recently announced that it is breaking up with the BJP. And secondly, pre-poll mood surveys show that the DMK-Congress alliance in the state will sail smoothly in the Lok Sabha polls.

"Cauvery won't be much of a problem in Tamil Nadu. In fact, for the DMK, the AIADMK and the BJP split has come at a very opportune time," opines Yashwant Deshmukh, the founding editor of CVoter, which recently released its Mood of the Nation pre-poll survey.

As per the India TV-CNX opinion polls, DMK-Congress in Tamil Nadu is expected to win over 50 percent of seats, with the AIADMK gaining a few seats and the BJP failing to make any mark.

How Much of a Poll Issue Is Cauvery?

"The Cauvery dispute is an eternal one. It keeps going – and all governments have had to face this. But everyone likes to play politics with it. It is only when there's a drought or severe water scarcity in the states that it becomes a critical issue," opines Narayanan. "Although Karnataka claims scarcity, it doesn't seem severe enough."

And because of its perennial nature, the Cauvery dispute has hardly ever been a determining factor in an election, especially a general election, say experts.

"If you look at it historically, Cauvery has definitely been an emotive issue, and it has been a cumulative factor in elections, but never the thing that makes or breaks a government," says Deshmukh.

Prof Gowda tells The Quint that it is unlikely that the current dispute – despite the BJP's best efforts to portray otherwise – "would erupt in a way that would make a huge impact in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls."

"This is because neither party can fully defy the water-sharing arrangement. There's always some space for negotiation based on the acuteness of water scarcity," he adds.