Bypoll Results: INDIA Bloc 10, NDA 2; Majority of Defectors to BJP Lose

Four out of six leaders who joined BJP lost but the party lose a majority of seats where its leaders left.

The results of the by-elections to 13 Assembly constituencies across seven states announced on 13 July provided to be less than satisfactory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Out of 13 seats, the NDA won two, the INDIA bloc won 10 and an Independent won one.

Before the bypolls, 5 of these seats were with the INDIA bloc, 4 with NDA, 3 with Independents and 1 with BSP.

While 10 of the bypolls were necessitated by the defection of leaders to other parties, three seats fell vacant due to the demise of sitting MLAs.

Interestingly, within the seats where candidates who switched parties were in the fray, the BJP lost a majority of places where it fielded candidates who defected as well as a majority of places where its leaders left the party.

Here is the state-wise breakup.

Himachal Pradesh

Dehra: Independent MLA Hoshyar Singh resigned from the seat after joining the BJP. The BJP fielded him in the bypoll but he lost to Congress' Kamlesh Thakur, wife of CM Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu.

Hamirpur: Independent MLA Ashish Sharma joined the BJP and has won the seat in the bypoll as well, defeating Congress' Pushpinder Verma. However, Congress' vote share has doubled compared to the Assembly polls even in defeat.

Nalagarh: Here Independent MLA Krishan Lal Thakur joined the BJP and contested the bypolls but he was defeated by Hardeep Singh Bawa of the Congress.

West Bengal

Raiganj: BJP MLA Krishna Kalyani vacated the seat after he joined the TMC. He had contested the Raiganj Lok Sabha seat on a TMC ticket in the recent elections but lost. However, he has now won the Raiganj Assembly bypoll on a TMC ticket, defeating BJP's Manas Ghosh by over 50000 votes.

Ranaghat Dakshin: BJP's Mukut Mani Adhikari left the party and joined the TMC. He has won the seat contesting on a TMC ticket, defeating BJP's Manoj Biswas by 39000 votes.

Bagda: Here BJP's Biswajit Das joined the TMC. The TMC, however, fielded Madhuparna Thakur, daughter of Matua leader Mamtabala Thakur. She has won the seat, defeating BJP's Binay Biswas.

Maniktala: This seat fell vacant due to the death of former minister Sadhan Pande. The TMC fielded his wife Supti Pande, who has now won the seat.

Uttarakhand

Manglaur: The seat fell vacant following the death of BSP MLA Sarwat Karim Ansari. The seat has been wrested by Qazi Nizamuddin of the Congress, defeating BJP's Kartar Singh Bhadana by a narrow margin of 614 votes. The BSP stood third in the seat. The Congress had accused the BJP of attacking local Muslims on polling day. Read more about the vote suppression allegations here.

Badrinath: The seat fell vacant after Congress MLA Rajendra Bhandari joined the BJP. The BJP fielded him in the bypoll but he lost to Lakhpat Singh Butola of the Congress.

Jalandhar West, Punjab

MLA Sheetal Angural defected from AAP to BJP before the Lok Sabha elections. The BJP fielded him from the seat but he lost to Mohinder Bhagat of Aam Aadmi Party. Bhagat had joined AAP in April 2023 from the BJP. The result would come as a disappointment to both BJP and Congress, both of whom lost a considerable chunk of votes compared to the Lok Sabha elections. Both parties have accused AAP of bribing voters on the eve of polling.

Rupauli, Bihar

The seat fell vacant after JD-U MLA Bima Bharti shifted to the RJD. The RJD had to face a disappointment as Bharti has lost the bypoll. The seat has been won by Independent candidate Shankar Singh, who used to be the leader of an Upper Caste militia and later joined the Lok Janshakti Party.

Amarwara, Madhya Pradesh

This tribal dominated seat was a consolation for the BJP. Sitting MLA Kamlesh Shah, who left the Congress to join the BJP has won the bypoll from the seat, defeating the Congress candidate by a narrow margin of 3000 votes.

Vikravandi, Tamil Nadu

This seat had fallen vacant due to the death of DMK MLA N Pugazhenthi in April this year. The DMK has retained the seat in the bypoll, with its candidate Anniyur Siva winning by 67000 votes.

What the Results Mean

• The results would come as a disappointment to the BJP, with the party managing to win only two seats. The other worrying part for the party is that while a majority of leaders who defected to the party - such as the Independents in Himachal Pradesh, Sheetal Angural in Jalandhar West and Rajinder Bhandari in Badrinath - lost the election, it lost three seats it had previously held in West Bengal.

• Then former BJP leader Mohinder Bhagat won in Jalandhar West. So while defectors lost on BJP tickets, they did well on the tickets of other parties.

• With the Congress winning two out of the three seats in Himachal Pradesh, it would bring added stability to the party's government in the state. Its double win in Uttarakhand would come as a boost to the party in its efforts to revive itself in the state.

• There are some lessons for the Opposition as well. The close loss in MP would definitely compel the Congress to go back to the drawing board on how it has been handling the state. MP was the biggest state where the Congress failed to win even a single seat in the Lok Sabha elections.

• Then Bima Bharti coming third in Rupauli is a sign that Tejashwi Yadav's strategy of opposing Pappu Yadav in the area isn't helping. Bima Bharti lost her deposit contesting against Pappu Yadav in the Lok Sabha elections and now she has stood third, losing the seat to an Independent candidate considered antithetical to Pappu Yadav.

• In either case, it does seem that the Mahagathbandhan would need to arrive at some kind of understanding with Pappu Yadav in the Kosi region.