It's official. The Bharatiya Janata Party isn't reviving its alliance with one of its earliest and longest-standing allies, the Shiromani Akali Dal. This came as a surprise as the party went out of its way to accommodate estranged allies like the Janata Dal (United) and the Telugu Desam Party.
Three interrelated developments make this clear.
On 26 March, Punjab BJP chief Sunil Kumar Jakhar issued a video statement on X saying, "BJP is going to contest the Lok Sabha elections in Punjab on its own. We took this decision after consulting party leaders, workers and common people".
The same day, Congress MP from Ludhiana, Ravneet Singh Bittu joined the BJP. He will be contesting from Ludhiana on a BJP ticket. A day later AAP MP from Jalandhar, Sushil Rinku, also joined BJP. These are both seats that the SAD used to contest as part of the SAD-BJP pre-poll alliance.
On 27 March, SAD chief Sukhbir Singh Badal said at a public meeting that the elections are a battle between "(Sikh) Panth and Punjab on one hand and all anti-Punjab parties run from Delhi on the other", making it clear that the alliance with BJP was now out of the question.
So what went wrong between the SAD and the BJP?
How important is Ravneet Bittu's and Sushil Rinku's shift to the BJP?
What lies ahead for BJP and SAD in Punjab?
This piece will try and answer these three questions.
Punjab: Why Did BJP-SAD Talks Break Down? Will Bittu & Rinku's Entry Help BJP?
1. What Went Wrong Between SAD and BJP?
There are three aspects to this.
Seat-Sharing: Traditionally, the pre-poll arrangement between SAD and BJP has been that the former contests 10 out of 13 Lok Sabha seats in Punjab while the latter contests three seats: Gurdaspur, Hoshiarpur and Amritsar. These also happen to be seats with a comparatively higher concentration of Upper Caste Hindu voters.
This time the BJP was insisting on contesting five seats. In addition to the above three seats, the party had asked for Patiala and any one seat between Ludhiana and Anandpur Sahib.
Sources say that the SAD was willing to concede one additional seat, besides the three traditional seats the BJP contests.
However, the fifth seat became a deal-breaker between the two parties, with neither side agreeing to back down.
Concessions: Fearing a backlash among Sikh voters in the eventuality of an alliance with the BJP, the SAD was seeking some concrete concessions from the Narendra Modi government, such as some positive movement on the release of Sikh political prisoners. However, the BJP is said to have been unwilling on this issue.
Concerns Over Vote Transfer: There were concerns from both parties that effective transfer of votes may be difficult as the ground situation in Punjab is more polarised than before, though still less than Hindi heartland states. For instance, BJP felt that Hindu voters may shift to AAP or Congress in the SAD seats while the Akalis felt the same about Sikh voters in BJP seats.
In fact, the BJP would now hope that the SAD makes its presence felt in seats like Ludhiana, Hoshiarpur, Gurdaspur and Amritsar, dividing the anti-BJP rural votes.
Expand2. How Important is the Shift of Ravneet Bittu and Sushil Rinku ?
Ravneet Singh Bittu has been a three-term MP from the Congress. He won the 2009 Lok Sabha elections from Anandpur Sahib and he won in 2014 and 2019 from Ludhiana.
He is the grandson of former CM Beant Singh, who is a polarising figure in Punjab politics. His tenure from 1992 to 1995 was associated with some of the worst human rights abuses, encounter killings, forced disappearances and police atrocities. This gained him the monicker 'Beanta Butcher' among many Sikhs.
On the other hand, Beant Singh is a glorified figure among Punjabi Hindus, many of who say that he "saved Punjab from the Khalistan militancy".
Bittu has taken forward his family's political approach by taking a hardline stand on security oriented issues.
Bittu is popular among Hindu traders of Ludhiana city and it will help BJP consolidate that vote. Had Bittu remained in the Congress, he would have prevented BJP from consolidating that vote.
However, among Sikh voters especially in Ludhiana's semi-rural segments like Gill, Dakha and Jagraon, Bittu almost entirely relied on the Congress' loyal support base.
As a BJP candidate, he is likely to perform poorly in the three rural segments as the party is still viewed with a lot of negativity in villages especially after the farm laws.
Ludhiana will be a fiercely contested seat. Bittu won by just two percentage points in 2014 and seven points in 2019.
Even if the BJP gets the support of Lok Insaaf Party led by the Bains brothers, it will still not be enough to guarantee a win especially with LIP weakening over the years. A lot would depend on who AAP and Congress field in the seat and if SAD fields Dakha MLA Manpreet Ayali, who has a strong base in the rural pockets.
For Sushil Rinku, BJP will be his third party in a little over a year. He had quit the Congress and joined AAP in 2023 and won the bypoll from the seat. He was a former MLA from the Jalandhar West seat. He has some influence among Dalit voters in Jalandhar city but this is a strong seat for the Congress and the party is likely to field former CM Charanjit Channi from the seat.
Expand3. What Next for BJP and SAD?
BJP
Irrespective of what happens in Ludhiana, Bittu's entry doesn't address BJP's fundamental problem in Punjab - the distrust among Sikh voters and lack of traction among Dalit voters.
In fact, Bittu's entry is likely to increase the gap between BJP and Sikhs even further.
The problem for the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections is that there is no one single Lok Sabha seat in Punjab that it can win purely based on Hindu consolidation.
There's another danger for the BJP. Punjab isn't a polarised state like the Hindi heartland. In a three way fight, it is difficult for any party to consolidate over 50 percent votes of any one community.
Therefore, the kind of Hindu consolidation the BJP achieves in other states, may be difficult to achieve in Punjab. In fact, in seats where BJP seems an unviable option, Hindu voters could shift to the AAP or Congress depending on the candidate.
SAD
This will be a make or break election for the SAD and Sukhbir Badal. This is the first election that the party will be contesting after the death of party patriarch Parkash Singh Badal and the first Lok Sabha election in over 25 years without the BJP.
Sukhbir Badal has managed to unite Akali factions by bringing Sukhdev Dhindsa and his splinter group back into the party. The party is likely to focus on all the predominantly rural Sikh dominated seats.
In all likelihood, Sukhbir Badal and Harsimrat Kaur will contest from their seats Ferozepur and Bathinda while Bikram Singh Majithia is likely to contest form Khadoor Sahib. These are the SAD's high focus seats in the elections.
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Expand
What Went Wrong Between SAD and BJP?
There are three aspects to this.
Seat-Sharing: Traditionally, the pre-poll arrangement between SAD and BJP has been that the former contests 10 out of 13 Lok Sabha seats in Punjab while the latter contests three seats: Gurdaspur, Hoshiarpur and Amritsar. These also happen to be seats with a comparatively higher concentration of Upper Caste Hindu voters.
This time the BJP was insisting on contesting five seats. In addition to the above three seats, the party had asked for Patiala and any one seat between Ludhiana and Anandpur Sahib.
Sources say that the SAD was willing to concede one additional seat, besides the three traditional seats the BJP contests.
However, the fifth seat became a deal-breaker between the two parties, with neither side agreeing to back down.
Concessions: Fearing a backlash among Sikh voters in the eventuality of an alliance with the BJP, the SAD was seeking some concrete concessions from the Narendra Modi government, such as some positive movement on the release of Sikh political prisoners. However, the BJP is said to have been unwilling on this issue.
Concerns Over Vote Transfer: There were concerns from both parties that effective transfer of votes may be difficult as the ground situation in Punjab is more polarised than before, though still less than Hindi heartland states. For instance, BJP felt that Hindu voters may shift to AAP or Congress in the SAD seats while the Akalis felt the same about Sikh voters in BJP seats.
In fact, the BJP would now hope that the SAD makes its presence felt in seats like Ludhiana, Hoshiarpur, Gurdaspur and Amritsar, dividing the anti-BJP rural votes.
How Important is the Shift of Ravneet Bittu and Sushil Rinku ?
Ravneet Singh Bittu has been a three-term MP from the Congress. He won the 2009 Lok Sabha elections from Anandpur Sahib and he won in 2014 and 2019 from Ludhiana.
He is the grandson of former CM Beant Singh, who is a polarising figure in Punjab politics. His tenure from 1992 to 1995 was associated with some of the worst human rights abuses, encounter killings, forced disappearances and police atrocities. This gained him the monicker 'Beanta Butcher' among many Sikhs.
On the other hand, Beant Singh is a glorified figure among Punjabi Hindus, many of who say that he "saved Punjab from the Khalistan militancy".
Bittu has taken forward his family's political approach by taking a hardline stand on security oriented issues.
Bittu is popular among Hindu traders of Ludhiana city and it will help BJP consolidate that vote. Had Bittu remained in the Congress, he would have prevented BJP from consolidating that vote.
However, among Sikh voters especially in Ludhiana's semi-rural segments like Gill, Dakha and Jagraon, Bittu almost entirely relied on the Congress' loyal support base.
As a BJP candidate, he is likely to perform poorly in the three rural segments as the party is still viewed with a lot of negativity in villages especially after the farm laws.
Ludhiana will be a fiercely contested seat. Bittu won by just two percentage points in 2014 and seven points in 2019.
Even if the BJP gets the support of Lok Insaaf Party led by the Bains brothers, it will still not be enough to guarantee a win especially with LIP weakening over the years. A lot would depend on who AAP and Congress field in the seat and if SAD fields Dakha MLA Manpreet Ayali, who has a strong base in the rural pockets.
For Sushil Rinku, BJP will be his third party in a little over a year. He had quit the Congress and joined AAP in 2023 and won the bypoll from the seat. He was a former MLA from the Jalandhar West seat. He has some influence among Dalit voters in Jalandhar city but this is a strong seat for the Congress and the party is likely to field former CM Charanjit Channi from the seat.
What Next for BJP and SAD?
BJP
Irrespective of what happens in Ludhiana, Bittu's entry doesn't address BJP's fundamental problem in Punjab - the distrust among Sikh voters and lack of traction among Dalit voters.
In fact, Bittu's entry is likely to increase the gap between BJP and Sikhs even further.
The problem for the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections is that there is no one single Lok Sabha seat in Punjab that it can win purely based on Hindu consolidation.
There's another danger for the BJP. Punjab isn't a polarised state like the Hindi heartland. In a three way fight, it is difficult for any party to consolidate over 50 percent votes of any one community.
Therefore, the kind of Hindu consolidation the BJP achieves in other states, may be difficult to achieve in Punjab. In fact, in seats where BJP seems an unviable option, Hindu voters could shift to the AAP or Congress depending on the candidate.
SAD
This will be a make or break election for the SAD and Sukhbir Badal. This is the first election that the party will be contesting after the death of party patriarch Parkash Singh Badal and the first Lok Sabha election in over 25 years without the BJP.
Sukhbir Badal has managed to unite Akali factions by bringing Sukhdev Dhindsa and his splinter group back into the party. The party is likely to focus on all the predominantly rural Sikh dominated seats.
In all likelihood, Sukhbir Badal and Harsimrat Kaur will contest from their seats Ferozepur and Bathinda while Bikram Singh Majithia is likely to contest form Khadoor Sahib. These are the SAD's high focus seats in the elections.
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)