TDP-Jana Sena Alliance: Decoding the Changing Poll Equations in Andhra Pradesh

As the 175-seat Andhra Pradesh Assembly gears up to go to polls in a few months, the Chandrababu Naidu-led Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and actor Pawan Kalyan's Jana Sena Party (JSP) have forged alliances to beat the ruling YSR Congress Party (YSRCP), which came to power in the state with a thumping majority in the 2019 elections.

"The TDP-JSP alliance is historical and is much-needed for Andhra Pradesh," former Andhra Pradesh CM Naidu said on 20 December, at the closing ceremony of his son Nara Lokesh's Yuvagalam Padayatra in the state.

Criticising Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy for "failing to keep his promises to the people of the state," he said that the TDP and Jana Sena's joint election manifesto would be announced soon.

The alliance is crucial for both the regional parties in a state where the YSRCP currently has an upper hand and the two national parties – Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)) and the Congress – have a negligible presence.

Political experts point out that the alliance may improve the chances of both parties against the ruling YSRCP, but challenges remain. How will the alliance benefit TDP and JSP? Where does this leave the BJP and Congress, which have had – and to some extent, continue to have – relationships with these two regional parties?

The Alliance: What Works & What Doesn't

Politics in Andhra Pradesh is heavily dependent on caste; here, the Reddy, Kamma, and Kapu communities are in a constant tussle for political dominance. While the YSRCP is largely known to be Reddy-dominated, the TDP is a Kamma-centric party. Pawan Kalyan, meanwhile, has some influence among the Kapus of the erstwhile East and West Godavari districts.

"If the TDP and the JSP come together, there is a likelihood that they would win more seats in the Kapu belt – in addition to drawing support from Kammas, the community Naidu belongs to," explains political analyst R Pridhvi Raj.

"Naidu's recent arrest [in the skill development case], which he claims was based on trumped up charges, may evoke some sympathy among voters – and there is also some level of anti-incumbency against Jagan's welfarist government. If both the TDP and JSP play their cards well, they may be able to bring down the ruling party's dominance to some extent, even if it is not enough to win them the state."

R Pridhvi Raj

However, the task ahead is not so simple.

"It is learnt that the TDP and the JSP are still working out their seat-sharing arrangement. Pawan Kalyan wants more than 40 seats for the Assembly elections, but the TDP is refusing to give so many seats to the JSP," says senior journalist and political observer Zakir. 

The JSP got a 6 percent vote share in the 2019 elections – with Pawan Kalyan losing both the seats he contested from. "The party currently claims that their graph has gone up to 30-40 percent. However, the ground reality is different," says Zakir.

"The TDP has a presence across Andhra Pradesh, same as the YSRCP. But the JSP is confined to the erstwhile East and West Godavari districts – in about 30 segments. This is because of Pawan Kalyan's influence among the Kapus and his image as an actor."

Zakir points out that the TDP, too, has some strongholds and sitting MPs in these regions, which may create disputes between the two parties. "There might be a tussle for power between the TDP and the JSP in at least 10-15 seats – like Rajahmundry Rural, Gajuwaka, Pithapuram, Tanuku, Tadepalligudem, and Tenali. Someone will have to sacrifice their seat."

The Kamma-Kapu rivalry may also play spoilsport, he opines. "These two communities have been fighting for political upper hand for decades, and the challenge before the TDP and the JSP is to convert both communities' votes in their favour. At the high command level, there are meetings and discussions, but will it help on the ground," asks Zakir.

The BJP Factor

By joining hands with the TDP, the Jana Sena has left its relationship with the BJP hanging in the balance. The party had contested the recently concluded Telangana Assembly elections with the BJP – and is still part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

The TDP, too, was once part of the NDA, but in 2018, the TDP-BJP relationship ended on a bitter note, which mostly had to do with the demand for Special Category Status for Andhra Pradesh. 

Naidu was in power in Andhra Pradesh at the time and the government had BJP ministers, too, who quit after the former chief minister's withdrawal from the NDA. 

The decision came as Jagan Mohan Reddy's YSRCP was gaining momentum in the state over the Special Category Status row against the ruling party at the Centre. The Manmohan Singh government, in 2014, had promised Special Category status for AP after the bifurcation of the state, but the susequent BJP government was reluctant to do so.

Fearing a backlash from the public, Naidu, too, decided to join the fight for the status, forcing him to end his relationship with the BJP.

Special Category Status would mean that AP would receive a large infusion of funds, which would have helped Naidu's plan to develop Amaravati as its new capital.

"But now, after Naidu's defeat in 2019 and his arrest earlier this year, he wants to return to the NDA. Pawan Kalyan, meanwhile, wants both Naidu and the BJP on board, but the BJP has not shown any interest in allying with Naidu because of their bitter past," explains Pridhvi Raj.

Earlier in October, Pawan Kalyan had said that BJP leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, were "positive" about their relationship.

Even so, the TDP-JSP alliance may have come as a blow for the BJP, which only polled about 0.85 percent votes in the 2019 elections. The ball is now in the BJP's court, and it must decide whether it should go solo or join the TDP-JSP combine.

It is important to note that the BJP has also cultivated a cordial relationship with Jagan Mohan Reddy and the YSRCP, with the latter often supporting its decisions in Parliament. "If the BJP chooses to go solo, its plan would be to end the TDP as a regional party and fill that vacuum in the future," opines Zakir.

What About the Congress?

The Congress party, which also polled below NOTA in the 2019 AP elections, has never been in power in the state since its bifurcation. But the party's recent victories in Telangana and Karnataka have renewed its vigour in the state.

Andhra Pradesh Congress Committee (APCC) president Gidugu Rudra Raju said the party would start campaigning from 20 January and its leaders would take up a statewide door-to-door campaign called 'Intinti Congress'.

The TDP, too, was triumphant over the Congress victory in Telangana – with the party's flags flying alongside Congress flags during the victory celebrations.

The TDP, after all, was part of the Congress-led grand alliance called 'Mahakutami' in 2018 in Telangana. The party won two seats in alliance with the Congress in the 2018 Assembly elections, but the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (then Telangana Rashtra Samithi) had poached them.

Their friendliness in Telangana, however, may not make any impact in Andhra Pradesh, say experts, with the TDP wanting to revive its relationship with the BJP.

"It is also difficult for the Congress to revive itself in Andhra Pradesh. The party is definitely motivated by the wins in Telangana and Karnataka. But unlike these states, where there are strong leaders like Revanth Reddy, Siddaramaiah, and DK Shivakumar, AP Congress lacks proper leadership and funds," opines Zakir.

Before the Telangana elections, the party wanted YS Sharmila, the president of YSR Telangana Party and the sister of Jagan Mohan Reddy, to take up a leadership position in AP Congress. However, Sharmila wanted to make a mark in Telangana in an alliance with the Congress. The discussions eventually fell through, with Sharmila supporting the Congress in the state, but not contesting from any seat.