11 months in power and 11 losses in the crucial political state of Uttar Pradesh. Surely these results suggest that all isn’t well here for the BJP. Remember, this was the state where the BJP on its own came up with a never-before tally of 71 seats during the Lok Sabha elections. A clean sweep. All political rivals mere by-standers.
Reverses Since Sept 2014
But surprisingly, the trends began to reverse way back in September last year, just 3 months into power. The BJP lost 7 of 10 assembly seats that went to polls. These were Sirathu, Charkhari, Nighasan, Balha, Thakurdwara, Bijnor and Hamirpur. The BJP had won these seats even in 2012. Now the winner in each of the seats was the Samajwadi party. The Modi euphoria was high at the time, bulk of the blame was put on Yogi Adityanath, who was the senior BJP leader in charge of the by-poll.
In October last year, the same story was repeated. The constituency of Kairana in riot hit western UP was taken by Samajwadi Party. The seat was held earlier by BJP legislature party leader Hukum Singh who had been under the scanner during the riots in Muzzaffarnagar.
Then, in April this year, the SP won the bypoll in Charkhari yet again, after the sitting SP MLA was disqualified following his conviction in a murder case. Charkhari is seen as Union Minister Uma Bharti’s own political backyard.
And now the latest reverse, another seat held by the BJP going to the SP in Phalendra near Gorakhpur.
What is the BJP Doing Wrong in UP
So what exactly has gone wrong for the party?
1. The debate on land acquisition has been poorly handled by the BJP. And in a primarily agrarian UP, this has gone down badly.
2. A growing perception post the ‘monogrammed’ suit, of being pro corporate and anti poor has diminished Modi’s own popularity. At the end of the day, the BJP still doesn’t have workers on the ground in this key state. 2014 was more about a Modi wave, his own personal charisma.
3. Frequent statements made by the likes of Sadhvi Prachi and Sakshi Maharaj has conveyed to the Muslims that the lunatic fringe within the party may not be just ‘fringe’. The PM’s own silence hasn’t helped. Winning 71 seats in UP would have been impossible for the BJP without a sizable Muslim vote. That vote is slipping away again.
4. The promise of ‘Achhe Din’ made by Modi is now being mocked at by many in the rural hinterland. Crop damage, heavy unseasonal rains have added to an environment of pessimism.
As Prime Minister Modi gets set to celebrate one year in power, he must be aware of the fact that the one state which contributed heavily in his rich tally of 282 is beginning to have serious reservations about his policies. At stake is not just UP, but in the near future, Modi must ensure this ‘contagion’ does not spread to Bihar that goes to the polls by the year end. Already the battle for Bihar just got tougher with the re-unification of the Janata Parivar. He must look at some course correction, before more political damage is done.
Bhupendra Chaubey is a senior political journalist and anchor based in New Delhi.
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