“Ye Alpesh bhai ka nirnay nahin hai. Ye Jannadesh hai (It’s not Alpesh’s decision, but a mandate),” says 38-year-old Dhaval Singh Thakor, who describes himself as an aam sainik of the Thakor Sena.
Pehle bhi, Alpesh bhai ne survey kiya, ki hum BJP ke paas jayein, ya Congress ke paas. Aam aadmi se poocha gaya, unhone rai dee. Survey kiya, phone survey hua aur bahut logon se baat bhi ki. (Alpesh conducted a survey to decide whether he should join the Congress or the BJP. He made phonecalls and spoke to several people, asking them for advice.)
Dhaval and his brother were unable to make ends meet as farmers, so he left his chaar bhiga zameen and came to the city, where he works an auto-driver. Even here, he says the police doesn’t spare him till he coughs up Rs 300-500 each time he’s caught on some pretext. “It’s time for change,” he says.
The Thakor Sena conducted an online, phone and door-to-door survey earlier this year to determine which political party Alpesh should join. According to his aides, around 25 lakh people said he should join the Congress, while only 1.6 lakh people said the BJP would be a good fit for him.
Dhaval is among the thousands of sainiks seen waving the red flag of the Gujarat Kshatriya Thakor Sena. The flag bears an uncanny resemblance to Leo, the Lion — the mascot for the Hollywood film studio Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer.
The roar before the drama – political in this case – sent the BJP scurrying into damage control mode.
A meeting to discuss the list of candidates for the yet to be announced Assembly election was followed by a second one to assess the impact of the Navsarjan Janadesh Mahasammelan, where Alpesh Thakor formally joined the Congress.
BJP President Amit Shah is said to be monitoring the developments closely, along with Chief Minister Vijay Rupani and former Chief Minister Anandiben Patel.
Why the BJP Should Be Worried
Alpesh Thakor claims to hold considerable sway over the Other Backward Class (OBC) vote that constitutes about 45 percent of the state’s population. Of the 146 sub-castes, the Kolis (as they are known in Saurashtra), the Koli Patels in South Gujarat and the Thakors in North Gujarat are the most prominent of the lot.
The Thakors have always held sway in Gujarat’s social and political discourse, but were never united. Alpesh Thakor has changed that.
The son of Khodabhai Patel, a former Congress leader, Alpesh began his public career five years ago with the Gujarat Kshatriya Thakor Sena, which launched a state-wide de-addiction drive. At the end of it, the Sena had about 6.5 lakh registered members.
On 26 January 2016, Alpesh Thakor launched the OSS (OBC, SC and ST) Ekta Manch, to protect their right to reservation which had come under threat from the Patidar agitation.
At the time, Alpesh claimed that his Republic Day convention was not political. However, he asserted it would decide the next chief minister of Gujarat.
On 23 October, 40-year-old Alpesh Thakor took a step in that direction by formally joining the Congress.
The BJP prides itself on winning elections with the help of a little ‘social engineering’. The OBC vote is crucial to the BJP’s aim to retain a respectable mandate in Modi’s home state in 2017.
In fact, the Prime Minister himself belongs to the Teli-Ghanchi (oil pressers) caste –which falls under the OBC category. Special emphasis is being laid on capturing OBC and Adivasi support, following the Hardik Patel-led Patidar movement. The agitation, which ended with the death of 12 people and destruction of property worth crores, put the government in a bind as it is politically risky and could easily be struck down by the courts.
In 2016, then Chief Minister Anandiben Patel – anointed successor by Modi himself – slapped a case of sedition on the fiery grassroots leader. Hardik’s extended jail term turned him into a Patidar hero. It also eroded the BJP’s Patidar base, that has helped the state retain power in Gujarat for 22 years.
Monday Blues for the BJP
The impressive turnout at the Navsarjan Janadesh Mahasammelan came even as the BJP is firefighting bribery allegations. Within hours of joining the party, former Hardik Patel aide Narendra Patel claimed he had been promised Rs 1 crore to join the BJP. He also displayed cash worth Rs 10 lakh before the media on the evening of 22 October. Within hours, Nikhil Savani, another Patidar turncoat, quit the BJP, saying Patel’s allegation had left him disappointed in the BJP.
The BJP maintains they’re fighting a proxy war launched by the Congress and is hedging its bets on a last mile push by its star campaigner, the Prime Minister.
Video Editor: Sandeep Suman
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