After Bypolls, Congress Could ‘Sweep’ Rajasthan, Say Poll Pundits

Renowned psephologist Yashwant Deshmukh predicted a ‘Congress sweep’ in the upcoming Rajasthan state elections.

In a blow to the ruling BJP government in Rajasthan, the Congress clinched the Mandalgarh state Assembly seat and is leading the race in Lok Sabha constituencies in Alwar and Ajmer on Thursday, 1 February.

The three seats went to polls following the demise of respective BJP legislators elected from there.

Looking at Thursday’s victory by keeping in mind the fast-approaching state Assembly elections, renowned psephologist Yashwant Deshmukh predicted a ‘Congress sweep’ in Rajasthan.

And here is the ultimate shocker calculation: There are trends from 17 Assembly segments available today from #Rajasthan. If these trends are applied on full Vidhan Sabha of 200 seats; then we are staring at massive Congress sweep.
Congress: 140 seats (+119)
BJP: 53 seats (-109) pic.twitter.com/gAJk8zlFXE

— Yashwant Deshmukh (@YRDeshmukh) February 1, 2018

Based on trends stemming from 17 Assembly seats, Deshmukh predicts that the Congress could win close to 140 out of a total of 200 seats in the 2018 state elections.

According to Deshmukh’s calculations, the Congress will see a swing of 119 seats in their favour, while the BJP can lose out on 109 seats in the state elections. The BJP came to power in the state with 162 seats in their kitty in 2014. The Congress won a mere 21 seats that year.

#Rajasthan #Mandalgarh #FinalResult
Massive -18 swing of votes against BJP. To rub it in; please consider the fact that Congress managed to win even after a very strong Congress rebel cut the congress votes big time. #MaharaniRouted pic.twitter.com/pL887GeZaw

— Yashwant Deshmukh (@YRDeshmukh) February 1, 2018

Analysing Congress’ Mandalgarh win, Deshmukh says that the BJP saw a massive swing of 18% votes against their favour, despite the presence of a Congress rebel who managed to split the Congress votes.

Similarly, Prashant Bhushan, activist and founder of Swaraj Abhiyan, too said that the Congress’ win indicated a 30% swing away from BJP.

BJP loses 2 Lok Sabha & 1 assembly seats in #RajasthanByPolls by huge margins. At least 30% vote swing away from BJP since LS polls! All this despite the vicious communal campaign of BJP around Cows, Love Jihad&Padmavat. Writing is on the wall. Today's will be Modi's last budget!

— Prashant Bhushan (@pbhushan1) February 1, 2018

Reacting to the Congress’ win, Sachin Pliot, the party’s star campaigner, said that it was proof of the electorate’s mandate against the BJP government in the state.

Initial trends from the Rajasthan bypolls are a mandate against the government. I hope our leads will increase even more. Vasundhara ji and her government have been totally rejected by people.

Pilot incidentally lost from the Ajmer seat in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections with a margin of 1.72 lakh votes. According to NDTV, the Congress pitched Raghu Sharma from the seat this time, against BJP’s Ram Swaroop Lamba.

Congress President Rahul Gandhi took to Twitter to congratulate the state unit on their victory.

Well done Rajasthan Congress! Proud of each and every one of you. This is a rejection of the BJP by the people of Rajasthan.#RajasthanByPolls

— Office of RG (@OfficeOfRG) February 1, 2018