The ABP-CVoter survey predicted that the Aam Aadmi Party may be within striking distance of a majority in Punjab, with a projected seat share of 51-57 seats. The halfway mark in Punjab is 59 seats.
According to the survey, the ruling Congress may be down to 38-46 seats, about half of its current tally. The SAD could get 16-24 seats, which is roughly in the same range as its current tally.
The sample size of the survey is over 13,000 respondents and it was carried out through August 2021.
A win in Punjab is important for AAP as it would be its first government outside of Delhi as well its first in a full-fledged state.
In terms of vote share, the survey predicts that the Congress could witness a decline of close to 10 percentage points, from 38.5 percent in 2017 to a projected 28.8 percent.
In contrast, AAP's vote share could increase from 23.7 percent to 35.1 percent.
The survey also predicts a decline in the SAD's vote share, from 25.2 percent in 2017 to the 2022 projection of 21.8 percent.
Curiously, the survey predicts an increase in the BJP's vote share from 5.4 percent to 7.3 percent. While may seem counter-intuitive given the massive anger against the party over the farm laws, it's not all that surprising from a statistical point of view. After the end of its alliance with the Akali Dal, the BJP is now likely to contest a much larger number of seats than the 23 seats it contested in 2017.
Interestingly, AAP convenor Arvind Kejriwal emerged as the most preferred choice as CM at 21.6 percent, followed by Sukhbir Badal at 18.8 percent. Captain Amarinder Singh was at 17.9 percent, AAP MP Bhagwant Mann at 16.1 percent and state Congress chief Navjot Sidhu at 15.3 percent.
Mann and Sidhu appear to be suffering because of their parties not naming a CM candidate clearly.
SURVEY REVEALS MASSIVE ANGER AT ALL LEVELS
However, the seat projections are only one part of the story. The survey shows an election of massive public anger and disappointment. The disappointment is against different entities in varying degrees - the union government, state government, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh, Leader of Opposition Harpal Cheema, Congress president Sonia Gandhi former president Rahul Gandhi, MPs, MLAs, local representatives etc.
Here's the net satisfaction rating of various figures in Punjab:
There's negative approval rating against almost all these entities. The only exception – Leader of Opposition Harpal Cheema of AAP – also has a rather low satisfaction rating of 4.6.
AN ATMOSPHERE OF DISAPPOINTMENT
The respondents also a showed a great deal of pessimism regarding their future.
60.8 percent respondents in Punjab said that in the last one year, their standard of living had deteriorated and only 17.6 percent said that it could improve in the next one year.
According to the survey 75 percent respondents in Punjab said that "the country and their life are both in a poor state".
The biggest election issue in Punjab as of now is price rise, which is at 33.6 percent, followed by farmers issues that is at 28.6 percent.
It does appear that the farmers' protest has channelised this feeling of dissatisfaction in Punjab.
Among the five states surveyed, Punjab reported the lowest rating for both PM Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi as PM choices, at 12.4 percent and 4.9 percent respectively. The preferred PM candidate is Arvind Kejriwal at 23.4 percent followed by Dr Manmohan Singh at 15.7 percent. Punjab had the highest "can't say" response on the "Who is the best candidate to be PM of India?" at 29.6 percent.
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)