Over 51 percent of respondents from Tamil Nadu voted that they were ‘not at all satisfied’ with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a Times Now-CVoter opinion poll has projected.
Similarly, only 31.95 percent chose Narendra Modi as the preferred prime minister and over 55.84 percent chose Congress’ Rahul Gandhi.
Political analysts have opined that one of the challenges that the All Indian Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) faces this Assembly election in Tamil Nadu is its association with the saffron party. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) has, on several instances, condemned the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for its ‘divisive politics.’
Here are the key takeaways from the opinion polls conducted in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Kerala.
MK Stalin the Preferred Chief Ministerial Candidate
Tamil Nadu Assembly elections will be held in a single phase on 6 April and the counting of votes will be done on 2 May.
The poll predicted that the DMK-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is likely to sweep the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections with 158 seats, which is a growth of 60 seats over what it had won in 2016.
With 38.4 percent, DMK President MK Stalin has emerged as the most favoured candidate for the post of chief minister in Tamil Nadu. Edappadi K Palaniswami is following him with 31 percent support. It is interesting to note that the choice of 7.4 percent respondents was Kamal Haasan, while 3.9 percent voted for VK Sasikala, 4.3 percent for Rajinikanth, 2.5 percent for PMK’s Dr S Ramadoss, 1.7 percent for KS Alagiri, and 2.6 percent for O Panneerselvam.
Over 21.04 percent of the respondents said they were ‘not at all satisfied’ with the present AIADMK regime, while 39.79 percent said they were ‘satisfied,’ and 33.04 percent said they were ‘satisfied to some extent’.
MNM, AMMK to Gain Votes
The UPA is likely to bag 43.2 percent of the vote share, an increase of 3.8 percentage points, and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to get 32.1 percent, a fall from 43.7 percent in 2016, the survey predicted.
The AIADMK-led NDA is expected to win about 65 seats.
Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) is expected to clock 7.1 percent of the vote share with about five seats.
TTV Dhinakaran had recently announced, after his aunt Sasikala made an exit from politics, that his party Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) will be contesting the polls as a third front. The opinion poll has predicted that the party will win at least three seats and get 6.5 percent of the vote share.
Puducherry: BJP to Tread Carefully
The NDA is likely to form the government in Puducherry by grabbing 18 of the total of 30 seats in the upcoming Assembly elections, the Times Now-CVoter opinion poll projected.
The NDA is expected to win 16 to 20 seats. In the 2016 Assembly elections, it had won 12 seats.
Meanwhile, the Congress-led UPA is projected to win around 12 seats. Other candidates are expected to win just one seat in Puducherry.
N Rangaswamy, the former Puducherry chief minister and president of All Indian N Rangaswamy Congress (AINR), has emerged as the most favoured chief ministerial candidate, followed by former Puducherry Chief Minister V Narayanasamy. Around 33 percent of the respondents said they were “not at all satisfied” with the UT government’s performance.
In 2016, the Congress-DMK alliance had won 17 Assembly seats and Narayanasamy was appointed as the chief minister. However, in February 2021 after a spate of resignations from the Congress, a floor test was conducted for the ruling party to prove its majority. The party was unable to. The Lieutenant Governor had then declared President’s rule in Puducherry as the BJP-AINR Congress alliance decided to not stake claim.
While the numbers seem favourable, there are a few fissures between BJP and AINR Congress chief N Rangaswamy. If the BJP fails to placate Rangaswamy and the AINR Congress decides to contest independently, it would benefit the UPA.
The NDA is likely to get 45.8 percent of the votes, an increase of 14.0 percentage points from the 30.5 percent it got in 2016. The UPA’s vote share is likely to decrease by 1.9 percentage points, from 39.5 percent in 2016 to 37.6 percent in 2021.
LDF to Retain Power in Kerala: Poll
The Left Democratic Front (LDF) is expected to make history by winning consecutive terms in Kerala. The party is likely to win 82 of the total 140 seats in the upcoming Assembly elections in Kerala, according to the Times Now-CVoter Poll Survey.
The United Democratic Front (UDF) is expected to get 56 seats, while the BJP is hardly expected to win one seat.
The LDF’s vote share is likely to suffer a 0.6 percentage point hit, from 43.5 percent in 2016 to 42.9 percent in 2021, and the UDF’s vote share is likely to decrease from 38.8 percent in 2016 to 37.6 percent in 2021.
Another key indicator of the LDF’s victory is Kerala’s Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan as the poll suggests 42.34 percent of people are ‘very much satisfied’ with his performance, making him the most preferred CM candidate.
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