“I have asked the nation for just 50 days; give me time till 30 December. If, after that, you find me at fault, I will willingly accept whatever punishment the nation decrees.”
The Prime Minister declared the above at a rally in Goa four days after the note ban and the deadline for delivery on his promises is nearly upon us. The entire country is waiting with bated breath for whatever it is Modi has in store for them at the end of this period.
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The First Rally After “50 Days”
It seems like the PM too is not keen on keeping his audience in suspense for much longer. A public appearance is scheduled a mere three days after this deadline, at the Parivartan rally in Lucknow on 2 January 2017.
Why Lucknow?
The rally was earlier scheduled for 24 December. Currently, there are four BJP Parivaratan ‘yatras’ underway in Uttar Pradesh which are supposed to conclude in Lucknow on 24 December. The occasion was earlier intended by the party as a celebratory show on the eve of ex-PM AB Vajpayee’s birthday. Later, however, the date was moved and rebranded as the PM’s first public appearance after the “50 days” deadline.
The BJP has claimed that it will amass so huge a following at its Parivartan rally that a lotus grows in the pond of UP elections. The biggest question right now is what Modi plans to tell his captive audience here.
The Prime Minister’s Address
Modi’s pending speech has thrown the party and government bureaucrats into a tizzy. Each word of the address is being weighed. All thought and effort is being poured into presenting the note ban as a lucrative, desirable scheme that has fetched brilliant results; they are also busy creating and christening follow-up plans and announcements.
What Will Modi Say?
In search of the answer to this million dollar question, Quint Hindi spoke to several members of the government and BJP. Distilling the various conversations, we have prepared an outline of what the PM might be expected to say in his address.
The Nation will be Thanked
Firstly, Modi will in his inimitable style elaborate upon the success of the note ban plan. This success will no doubt be attributed to the cooperation and sacrifices of the citizens. Modi will say that his countrymen have endured great personal suffering to do their bit in this grand fight against corruption. He will warn them that though the coffers of the bank are overflowing, not all of this money is white. He will then assure them that all confiscated black money is being investigated.
The War Against White-Robed ‘Plunderers’
Modi will reassure his audience that all those who converted their black money into new notes, gold or silver will be raided. He will declare a war against all white-robed plunderers who escaped scot-free in the rule of earlier governments. He will tell them about the great risk to himself that he courts with this scheme, that it flies in the face of votebank politics. He will ask for their cooperation in ensuring the success of his future endeavours. The last will of course be a plea in disguise to the people of Uttar Pradesh to vote BJP in the upcoming elections.
Cashless in 50 Days
If numbers are to be believed, after demonetisation of 500 and 1000 rupee notes on 8 November, digital transactions rose by 1200 percent. In the last month, transactions through e-wallets, UPI, USSD, RuPay card and POS machines rose by 400-1300 percent.
Modi will tell the citizens how India has progressed towards a cashless future in the last month. He will request them to be a part of this move and participate in cashless transactions as much as they can. He will exhort young Indians to help him in the construction of a cashless India. He will speak of Jan Dhan accounts as the weapon he has provided the poor to empower them. The possibility of cash transfers to Jan Dhan accounts too cannot be dismissed.
According to sources, the government is planning to launch a toll free helpline to provide solutions to problems that accompany digital transactions. The PM could make officially announce this at the Lucknow rally.
The Numbers Game
It is not possible at this point to tally the cash that has made its way into government coffers through various acts of the Income Tax department and the Income Disclosure Scheme. However, the PM is expected to make much of the estimated amount which is anywhere between 3-5 lakh crore. Since there are some days left for the 50 day deadline, this estimate is also the subject of turbulence and debate.
For Farmers
The PM will lay a special emphasis on the development of Uttar Pradesh and its people. His address will address villages, Dalits, the poor, the exploited and the deprived and promise them reparations through welfare schemes with the money confiscated from plunderers.
Around 60 percent of Uttar Pradesh’s population is agriculture-dependent. Lakhs of farmers are drowning in debt, making them a giant vote bank. Among the PM’s announcements are sure to be special presents for farmers. A challenge will be to promise them relief from debt without employing the phrase “loan waivers”. This might be done with a promise of cheap loans.
Women, Youth: Modi’s Favourite Vote Bank
From the perspective of vote bank, women and youth are a perennial favourite with PM Modi. The Lucknow address is sure to have something in store for these groups. The opposition and some economists have made clear their concerns about the adverse effect of the note ban on domestic economy. Cash-based workers are concerned about losing their livelihood. Modi will address these concerns and explain how a move towards cashless transactions will create more jobs.
Aachar Sanhita
Along with UP elections, BJP is also eyeing the dates of Assembly elections in five regions. If the Election Commission makes this announcement by last week of December, the shadow of Aachar Sanhita or the Model Code of Conduct will fall upon the 2 January rally. Party strategists profess to not be very bothered about this, though, since the PM’s address will ostensibly concern the entire nation and not just election-bound Uttar Pradesh.
The War on Corruption
The Prime Minister has repeatedly said that note ban is not the only weapon in his arsenal in the war against black money. He means to take even more severe action. These pronouncements might materialise in a more concrete form in his address. The blueprint of this principled war against corruption, if sources are to be believed, might be shared with citizens in his 2 January speech.
Ever since the demonetisation move on 8 November, the country has spent vast portions of its time in ATM and bank queues. People have been unable to withdraw hard-earned money from their own accounts. The PM is aware how crucial it is to win the support of this put-upon majority with righteous rhetoric. But if the coming days show no signs of improvement as far as cash availability and daily livelihood is concerned, no amount of rhetoric will help Modi’s case.
(The article was originally published in Quint Hindi)
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