Modi and Pakistan. Halfway through the Prime Minister’s term, we’re evaluating which of his diplomatic moves with Pakistan worked and which ones didn’t.
When Modi invited Nawaz Sharif to his swearing-in, everyone called it a bold move. Both Modi and Sharif looked ready to set aside bad history and start afresh. Clearly, a move that worked.
But just months later, foreign secretary-level talks were called off because the Pakistan High Commissioner met Hurriyat leaders in Delhi. An over-reaction, felt some observers, perhaps from a PM new to dealing with Pakistan. So, a move that didn’t work.
The relationship went cold for a while. But in 2015, the PMs met in Ufa and again in Paris on the sidelines of COP21. Sushma Swaraj also travelled to Islamabad.
Then came a big move from Modi. He landed in Lahore on 25 December 2015 on his way back from Afghanistan to wish Nawaz Sharif a happy birthday. Not only was it out of the box, it conveyed that Modi was ready to go the extra mile with Pakistan. That definitely worked.
But a week later, almost to spite Modi's Lahore halt, came the Pathankot airbase attack. Interestingly, Modi did not turn hawkish. He even allowed an investigation team from Pakistan to survey the attack site which many felt was a bad move. When the investigators announced that India had staged the attack to malign Pakistan, Modi learnt a tough lesson. In Pakistan you have to reckon with both Sharifs – the PM and the Army Chief! So, this did not work.
Modi now took ‘dosti’ out of the equation. When Pakistan called out India for human rights violations in Kashmir after the killing of Burhan Wani in July 2016, Modi brought up Pakistan’s human rights violations in Balochistan. A surprise move, but it worked.
Then came the Uri terror attack, killing 19 Indian soldiers. An angry Modi got India’s neighbours to back out of the Islamabad SAARC summit, getting the meet scrapped. Pakistan’s MFN (Most Favoured Nation) status, the Indus Water Treaty – everything was put under scrutiny.
Ten days after Uri, India announced its surgical strikes on terrorist ‘launch’ pads across the Line of Control. A massive raising of stakes by Modi. For most Indians, the move worked – big time!
And yet, where does this leave Modi’s Pakistan policy? Fact is, like PMs before him, Modi is yet to fully figure out Pakistan. The positivity of 2014 is long lost, we’re not sure what will happen next. Three Indian soldiers were killed on 22 November along the LoC, one of the bodies mutilated. The Indian Army has vowed “heavy retribution”.
As the rhetoric escalates, at mid-term, Prime Minister Modi is running the risk of unintended consequences.
Video Editors: Purnendu Pritam/Mohd Irshad Alam
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