Monsoon hit the Kerala coast, the Indian Meteorological Department’s Director General-designate confirmed on Saturday, 8 June, marking the start of the four-month season in the country.
Several parts of Kerala have already started receiving a good amount of rainfall.
GOOD NEWS DUE TO LOW WATER LEVELS IN SOUTH, WEST INDIA
This comes as good news for the states that have been witnessing farm distress and receding water levels in reservoirs in west and south India.
Most of rural India depends on the four-month monsoon season, which accounts for 75 percent of annual rainfall, due to a lack of adequate alternative sources of irrigation. A good monsoon has a direct impact on the economy as agriculture remains the major contributor to India's GDP.
The north Indian plains, central India and parts of south India have been recording temperatures over 45 degrees Celsius, while the mercury has soared to over 50 degrees in parts of Rajasthan.
TWO-THREE WEEKS DELAY IN ARRIVAL
On Thursday, 6 June, the IMD said the arrival of the monsoon in Delhi is likely to be delayed by two-three days from its usual onset on 29 June. Skymet said it may take at least a week longer.
But the capital is set to receive a normal monsoon, and northwest India's monsoon too is likely to be normal this year.
The IMD declares the onset of monsoon season over Kerala if after 10 May, 60 percent of the available 14 stations – Minicoy, Amini, Thiruvananthapuram, Punalur, Kollam, Allapuzha, Kottayam, Kochi, Thrissur, Kozhikode, Thalassery, Kannur, Kudulu and Mangalore – report rainfall of 2.5 millimetres or more over two consecutive days.
This is one of the important parameters to declare the onset of monsoon. The other two factors are the speed of the westerlies and long-wave radiation.
In 2016, the monsoon had arrived on the same day.
The IMD has made a forecast of 96 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) which falls on the border of normal and below normal rainfall. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.
It has, however, maintained that the monsoon will be “normal” for 2019.
DELAY DUE TO EL-NINO PHENOMENON
The rains in June are likely to be impacted due to the El Nino phenomenon, although a weak one. It is generally believed that El Nino, that is associated with the heating of Pacific waters, has an impact on India’s monsoon.
The delay in monsoon season has no correlation with the overall quantum of the rainfall, but the monsoon will be late in other parts of the country due to its overall delay.
Monsoon arrived in the south Andaman Sea, its first Indian outpost before it reaches the mainland, on 18 May.
Last month, the IMD had said the monsoon would reach Kerala on 6 June, a delay of six days from its usual onset. However, conditions were not favourable for its progress.
(With PTI inputs)
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)