- The political impact of demonetisation would depend on the policies and programmes in the remaining two-and-a-half years of the government.
- One cannot simply conclude that the currency crisis is leading to declining popularity of the BJP.
- Despite demonetisation, there is nothing to suggest that the poor and lower classes, a crucial vote base, would turn against Modi or the BJP.
- What works in Modi’s favour is that he enjoys great personal popularity, more than Rahul Gandhi and other regional leaders.
- A veritable coalition of the Opposition parties can provide a strong counter to the BJP.
- Recent surveys and poll results indicate declining popularity of the BJP.
It is difficult to forecast the political impact of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s currency demonetisation policy on the BJP’s electoral prospects. Much would depend on the policies and programmes the government might implement in the remaining two-and-a-half years of the Modi regime – especially in the last year before the country goes in for parliamentary elections in 2019.
The immediate crisis and problems (long queues at ATMs) resulting from the demonetisation move would be over soon and the people may even forget the hardships they faced – or continue to face – while exchanging their hard-earned money.
Going by the difficulties faced by the common man, one might conclude that the crisis has resulted in an erosion in Modi’s popularity. But to do so would be a mistake because there might be other factors which could cause trouble for the BJP during the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
If that were to happen, the currency crisis would be an icing on the cake, but it may not by and in itself upset the people so much as to turn them away from the BJP slightly over two years from now.
Modi’s Newer Support Base
It is true that besides the common man, those badly hit by the currency crisis are the traders and the business community – the traditional supporters of the BJP. The electoral success of the BJP before the 2014 elections was largely due to their support. But the electoral success of the BJP in 2014 demonstrated that this is a story of the past.
The crushing victory of the BJP in the last Lok Sabha election was possible because the party managed to expand its support base among rural voters, the lower and poor classes and even a section of the Dalits.
Among the poor, 24 percent voted in favour of the BJP, while 20 percent went with the Congress. As much as 31 percent of the lower classes voted for the BJP and 19 percent for the Congress. The BJP made inroads among the Dalits (24 percent) and adivasis (38 percent) and the Congress could only garner 19 percent of the former and 28 percent of the latter group.
The long queues outside the banks indicate that the poor and the lower classes have been the worst hit by Modi’s demonetisation drive. However, at this point in time, there is nothing to suggest that they would turn against Modi or the BJP. To appease these social groups, Modi cleverly tried to turn the demonetisation move into a war between the rich and the poor by drawing parallels with his “karak chai” not quite preferred by the affluent and the wealthy.
Some are even willing to accept the government’s argument that difficulties faced by the people now would bear the fruits of benefit in the future.
At the moment, there is no reason to suggest that the lower classes and the poor would shy away from voting for the BJP simply because of the problems they have so far faced as a result of the note ban.
Defeating Modi Needs a Coalition of Opposition Parties
What seems to be working to the advantage of the BJP is Modi’s personal popularity. He still instills hope among a large section of Indian voters.
The findings of a survey by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) indicate that more than 60 percent of voters are satisfied with Modi. By default, he is more popular than Rahul Gandhi. Besides, regional leaders such as Nitish Kumar, Lalu Prasad, Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal, Jayalalithaa, Mayawati and Kahilesh Yadav are popular only in their respective states.
These regional leaders could pose a challenge for the BJP, but at this moment there are no signs of them aligning against Modi’s party. Even on the currency ban issue there are differences among these leaders. With the BJP continuing to enjoy the support of various social groups, it is difficult to imagine that a single party would be able to dislodge it in 2019.
But does this mean that everything is fine with the BJP and that it should not have to worry? The BJP registered a massive victory in 2014, but it should be sobered as it remembers that its vote share was a mere 31 percent and that it romped home because of India’s first-past-the-post system.
The biggest question is whether the party will be able to muster as many seats as it did in 2014 even if it manages to keep its vote share intact in 2019. Even a nominal electoral understanding between the opposition parties, which could potentially prevent fragmentation of votes, could land the BJP in a tight spot. The results of the 2015 Bihar assembly election is a case in point.
Gloomy Signals For The BJP
Besides being defeated in Delhi and Bihar, the BJP’s vote share declined even in states it had won in the recent past. The people may be happy with Modi as the Prime Minister but there does seem to be some decline in the popularity ratings of the government. Surveys indicate that people are finding it increasingly difficult to believe in slogans such as achhe din aayenge, a promise which Modi made time and again during his campaign for the 2014 polls.
The demonetisation measure may not help usher in achhe din but will it serve to turn the tide against the ruling party? For the record, the unemployment rate is at an all-time high and could turn the youth against the BJP.
(The writer is a professor and currently Director at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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