Is Punjab Facing a Security Threat from Pak Ahead of Polls?

Germany detained an individual with links to the pro-Khalistan Sikhs for Justice (SFJ) outfit, which is suspected to be behind the recent explosion in Ludhiana. The individual, identified as Jaswinder Singh Multani, was detained after Delhi shared intelligence inputs with Berlin. On 28 December, Punjab Police further arrested three individuals purportedly campaigning for the SFJ and distributing propaganda material in Patiala. While no group has claimed responsibility, security officials suspect the role of Pakistan-based, pro-Khalistan elements for the explosion at the district court in Ludhiana, which killed one individual and injured six others on 23 December. Additionally, the Punjab Police have also alerted the state's security apparatus of the "very high" threat of ISI-backed, pro-Khalistan outfits in the state.

However, it is crucial to note that the separatist Khalistan movement has remained largely dormant in the past years, with no major security threat posed by the groups. In that context, the recent incident can be perceived as Pakistan-backed extremist elements’ potential attempts to indulge in disruptive actions in the poll-bound state, posing no larger security risk beyond the Punjab region.

In fact, Ludhiana’s explosion inside a government building points to the inadequate state security apparatus and marks the militants’ capabilities to penetrate high-security zones, as seen with the low-intensity hand grenade attack at the gate of the Pathankot Army camp in November. In 2016, the Indian Air Force's Pathankot base had come under attack reportedly by six armed militants of the Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), which killed 10 security officials and wounded 22 others.

Rise in Drone Sightings

Such security shortcomings coincide with recent instances of violence of sacrilege in the state, which has traditionally held electoral sensitivities. Further, the attack in the urban city remains a testament to the vulnerable security situation in Punjab in the past few weeks, which was previously limited to border regions across the International Border (IB) between India and Pakistan, with the increased detection of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and recovery of explosives.

According to Punjab government records, over 35 UAVs were sighted in 2021 within 2-10 kilometres across the border. Punjab state police also recovered multiple hand grenades and tiffin bombs, and one kilogram of RDX, a powerful explosive, was seized in the border town of Gurdaspur in early December.

Recently, the BSF also drew in municipal authorities of Punjab's border districts within 5-kilometre proximity to the IB, to assist with the manual detection of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the absence of anti-drone technology. The recent step was perhaps taken in response to the rise in the frequency of UAV detection in recent months.

Bharat Karnad, a national security expert at the Centre for Policy Research, noted that UAVs could evolve to become the new tool of warfare. He says, “UAVs are particularly useful for surveillance, to know ‘what’s behind the hill’ without risking the lives of one’s military or intelligence personnel and even to drop small packages of explosives to undercover agents, dissidents across the border. For the same reasons of utility with minimum risks, the transnational drug cartels may favour UAVs.”

State May Remain Under High-Alert

In the immediate term, Delhi is liable to explore ways to expand security cover in the state, as evidenced by the recent extension in BSF's jurisdiction from 15 to 50 kilometres from the Indo-Pakistan border in Punjab. Authorities might further deploy advanced military equipment, particularly for aerial defence, factoring in the risk of UAVs for purposes of smuggling and dropping arms.

The state is anticipated to remain under high-security alert over the coming months, particularly ahead of the Punjab Assembly Elections in 2022, amid suspected attempts by outfits to instigate inter-religious conflict in the Sikh-majority state during the poll campaigning months to gain greater relevance.

Counter-militancy operations across six border districts – Amritsar, Fazilka, Ferozepur, Gurdaspur, Pathankot, and Tarn Taran – are also expected to strengthen in the coming days and weeks, with the recovery of explosives and arrests likely in the near future.

(Aishwaria Sonavane is a geopolitical intel analyst with a focus on Asia. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)