In its first long-range forecast for the south-west monsoon, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday, 15 April, has predicted that the monsoons will be “near-normal” this year.
The monsoon is likely to be 96 percent of the long period average (LPA), a senior official of the IMD said.
El Nino conditions are expected to weaken as the monsoon progresses, according to IMD.
LPA is the average rainfall between 1951 and 2000, which is 89 cm. Anything between 90-95 percent of LPA falls in the ‘below normal’ category.
Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency, in its earlier forecast had predicted below-normal monsoon rains from June through September. Skymet had attributed the developing El Nino phenomenon for its forecast of below-normal monsoon.
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