India Set to Fall Behind Bangladesh in 2020 Per Capita GDP: IMF

This will be sharper than the previous estimate of a 4.5% decline induced by the coronavirus impact.

India’s economic growth forecast is projected to contract by 10.3 percent in 2020-21, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday, 13 October. This will see India drop below Bangladesh in terms of per capita Gross Domestic Product, NDTV reported, quoting the IMF report.

This will be sharper than the previous estimate of a 4.5 percent decline induced by the coronavirus impact. The emerging markets have been impacted majorly in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

Released on Tuesday ahead of the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank, IMF's ''World Economic Outlook'' report said global growth would contract by 4.4 percent this year and bounce back to 5.2 percent in 2021, reported news agency PTI.

“Revisions to the forecast are particularly large for India, where GDP contracted much more severely than expected in the second quarter,” the IMF said in its report.

According to the report, India's per capita GDP is set to plunge to $1,877 this fiscal year ending on 31 March 2021. Meanwhile, Bangladesh’s per capita GDP in dollar terms is expected to grow to $1,888, according to the IMF report, NDTV said.

As per the report, India is likely to bounce back with an impressive 8.8 percent growth rate in 2021, thus regaining the position of the fastest-growing emerging economy.

Meanwhile, the USA’s economy is projected to contract by 5.8 percent in 2020 and increase by 3.9 percent in 2021. Whereas China has become the only country to show a positive growth rate of 1.9 percent in 2020, IMF said.

“All emerging market and developing economy regions are expected to contract this year, including notably emerging Asia, where large economies, such as India and Indonesia, continue to try to bring the pandemic under control,” Bloomberg reported.

The World Bank expects the economy to decline by 9.6 percent, while RBI forecast GDP would plunge 9.5 percent in 2020-21, The Times of India reported.

(With inputs from PTI, TOI and Bloomberg)