Sanjaybhai Virabhai Patel tends to six buffaloes, three of whom give him 20 litres of milk which he duly deposits at the milk producers’ society in Fatehpura village of Gujarat’s Mehsana district – home to Dudhsagar Dairy, one of the largest across the state.
But over the last two years or so, Sanjaybhai’s income from selling milk to his village society has dipped considerably, especially when he must balance between the costs involved in feeding and maintaining the animals and running a family of six, including his ageing parents.
“This milk business is no good now,” Sanjaybhai laments, as he bites open a sachet of Pan Parag, violently spits the plastic corner of the pack, before emptying the contents into his cavernous mouth in one go. Chewing on the mouthful of gutka, the 35-year-old says that the rising prices of essential commodities and the costs involved in the milk business have cast a burden on his finances.
“Almost all Patidars of Fatehpura who deal in milk have been hit. We now need jobs and amanat (reservation) might be the only solution,” he says, adding that his fellow community members are now seriously considering abandoning the BJP for the Congress. Patel-dominated Fatehpura has around 800 voters.
About 270 km southwest of Mehsana, 66-year-old Vadilal Giridharibhai Patel of Tilwa Thakor village, under Jalod (reserved) Assembly constituency in Dahod district – one of the most backward in Gujarat – awaits the arrival of his other Patidar brethren with their respective supplies of milk.
The milk would then be deposited at the Limdi milk chilling centre before finally reaching the Godhra-based Panchamrut Dairy. Vadilal’s humble house doubles up as Tilwa Thakor’s milk collection point as well as a centre of Patel politics in the village.
Vadilal, who owns three milch cows – their udders full – is a picture of contentment. His wife and niece chop vegetables that will be used for the evening’s vadapav dinner.
“My cows give me 16 litres of milk (which have low fat content compared to buffaloes). After accounting for all costs, I am left with Rs 3,000 from selling milk to the dairy cooperative society,” he says. His wife Kamlaben chimes in. “Baithe baithe yahi to paisa aata hai (we earn this money sitting at home),” she says. With no children to join the ranks of Hardik Patel’s Patidar reservation movement, Vadilal and his wife prefer continuing to vote for the BJP.
For the Patidars of Rannyar, Hardik A "Non-Entity"
However, the Tilwa Thakor Patels are aware that in the event of a split in the Patidar vote and the Adivasis voting en bloc for the Congress, the BJP will be at a disadvantage in Dahod. “The forward castes in this village have more cows and buffaloes than the Adivasis, so they draw more milk. But it is also true that the Adivasis are more united politically,” Vadilal admits, as he sits on top of the flat top of a large can with a capacity to hold 40 litres of milk.
The Patels of Tilwa Thakor sell milk to the Panchamrut Dairy at the rate of Rs 35 a litre (buffalo milk with higher level of fat content fetches Rs 65 a litre). The rate is uniform across most villages of Dahod, including Rannyar, the village adjoining Tilwa Thakor. The Patels of Rannyar enjoy better economic status, but that is not a reflection of prosperity resulting from being engaged in the milk business.
Mahendrabhai Patel, 60, earlier owned six cattle heads but an ailment has forced him to work with just one buffalo. Consequently, the volume of milk produced in his backyard has reduced considerably.
“Of the 70 Patel households in Rannyar, only around 25 sell milk. My returns from selling milk is hugely supplemented by the income of my two sons who work for Reliance Petrochemicals in Jamnagar,” Mahendrabhai says.
For the Patidars of Rannyar, Hardik Patel is a“non-entity” with “no influence here”. “Mehsana is very far off,” Mahendrabhai says, indicating that the Patidar agitation which picked up pace in that district, has really not had any influence in Rannyar where the Patels promise to stand by the BJP when Jalod goes to the polls on 14 December.
Disenchantment Among the Patels
Although the village-level “doodh mandlis” across Gujarat’s three milk-rich zones (Mehsana-Patan-Gandhinagar, Panchmahals and Anand-Kheda) are firmly in the grip of the Patels, there is “deep disenchantment” among them, according to a Mehsana district administration source.
While the Mehsana “doodh mandlis” are in the control of the BJP, the Congress commands a good number of these village-level units in Dahod (where the six Assembly seats are equally shared between the BJP and the Congress).
“Over the past couple of years, milk has become an unviable mode of livelihood. Input costs, including of labour, has gone up steadily, the payment (by cheque) cycle has remained disturbed, and more recently, the demonetisation move wreaked havoc,” says Prateek Upadhyay, the Mehsana district registrar.
“Since the villages of the milk-abundant districts are dependent on dairy cooperatives, demonetisation shook up the rural economy,” Upadhyay confirms, adding that “it will be interesting to observe whether people’s sentiments after last November’s note ban will impact on how they vote.”
Fully aware of the potential impact of the alliance between the Hardik Patel-led Patidar Amanat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) and the Congress, district-level BJP leaders fear a 20 percent shift in the Patel vote away from the ruling party. “The youth vote among the Patidars will be a key factor, especially in the backdrop of PAAS’ sustained agitation,” says BJP’s former Mehsana president Keshubhai M Patel, who also heads the Zila Sahakari Sangh.
While Deputy Chief Minister Nitin Patel, who will contest the Mehsana seat, is an emerging leader, Patidars will “step back and decide who they will finally cast their vote for,” another district BJP leader said.
However, this might be offset by the “growing dissatisfaction among other state BJP leaders jockeying for power in the party hierarchy,” the sources said, admitting that the party is beset with “internal rivalries.”
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