As voting finally concluded for the mammoth eight-phase West Bengal elections on Thursday, 29 April, major pollsters came up with their seat and vote share predictions for the four states and one Union territory that went to polls in the last couple of weeks. Here’s an overview of their projections:
- The Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress looks poised to retain power in West Bengal, although the BJP is giving a tough fight.
- The DMK-Congress combine will come to power in Tamil Nadu with a big majority.
- The Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF is set to return to power for the second time in a row in Kerala, breaking a four-decade tradition of the alternate governments.
- Most exit polls predicted a victory for the NDA in Assam, despite a UPA fightback
- Exit polls predict that NDA will form the government in Puducherry.
The result for the Assembly elections in these five states and one UT will be declared on 2 May.
West Bengal
The TMC, as per the CVoter Exit Poll, is projected to secure a narrow win with 158 seats, with a loss of around 53 seats as compared to the 2016 elections. Meanwhile, the BJP is expected to win around 115 seats, a massive jump from the three seats it won in 2016.
As per the Republic-CNX poll, while the TMC is projected to win 128-138 seats, the BJP may cross the halfway mark of 146 with 138-148 seats.
Meanwhile, the India Today-My Axis Poll projected a “tight fight” with a potential BJP win; and News X-Polstrat and Today’s Chanakya predicted a return of the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC.
Tamil Nadu
The Republic-CNX and the CVoter exit polls predicted that the UPA will secure more than 160 seats in Tamil Nadu, while the AIADMK-led alliance will get 58 to 70 seats.
And while the News24-Chanakya survey projected that the DMK-led alliance will secure 164 to 186 seats, the India Today-Axis My India poll pegged an even higher number for the alliance at 175-195 seats.
Assam
Three out of four surveys – CVoter, India Today-Axis My India, and Republic-CNX – predicted a majority for the BJP-led alliance in Assam.
Today's Chanakya predicted a range of 61-79 seats for the NDA, with the majority mark at 63.
According to the CVoter survey, the UPA is expected to register a significant gain in vote share – from 31 percent in 2016 to 48.8 percent in 2021.
Kerala
Four major exit poll surveys – CVoter, India Today-My Axis, Today’s Chanakya and Republic-CNX – predicted a return of the Pinarayi Vijayan-led Left government in Kerala in the 140-seat battle against Congress-led opposition. The pollsters showed that the NDA will continue to remain a marginal player in the southern state.
Puducherry
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), comprising the All India NR Congress (AINRC), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), has been projected to form the government in Puducherry, according to three exit polls.
The Congress-DMK-led alliance has been projected to lag behind in all three of them.
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