Tamil Nadu Urban Local Body Polls Strengthen DMK vs BJP Political Narrative

The BJP's nominal surge has affected the AIADMK even as the DMK has benefited from it.

The Bharatiya Janata Party’s performance in the recently held urban local body elections in Tamil Nadu was significant for two reasons. The BJP's gain was noticeable, as the party not just increased its vote share, but also finished second and third in several wards.

However, analysts say that while BJP wants to emerge as an alternative to both Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), in the Dravidian state, the party is far from becoming a big player.

This, even as the party performed its best in the local polls, which is being considered a precursor to the Assembly elections.

The Risk of Going Solo

What made the contest challenging and interesting was the fact that the BJP fought the local body elections all by itself. It was in talks with the AIADMK, the coalition partner in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), but when denied 25 percent of the seats, BJP decided to go solo.

BJP took the political risk of walking out of the alliance just four days before the last date of filing nominations.

But the party managed to field as many as 5,480 candidates all over the state and campaigned for 18 days. It won 22 seats out of 1,374 corporation wards, 56 seats out of 2,843 municipal wards and 230 out of 7,621 town panchayat seats.

Seat Share: Finished Fourth With Localised Impact

BJP secured 5.41 percent vote share and emerged as the fourth largest party in terms win percentage or the number of wards it won. Meaning, BJP has not emerged the third largest party in the state as 12.03 percent of the vote share went to independent candidates.

Also, Congress won more seats (592), though with a lower vote share of 3.3 percent, because it contested in fewer seats.

BJP did manage to reach municipalities and town panchayats in 28 districts, apart from Kanyakumari, its perceived traditional stronghold. The party recorded victories in northern districts like Ariyalur, Krishnagiri, Ranipet, Cuddalore, Madurai, Kancheepuram, Hosur, Thanjavur, Dindugul, Sivakasi, and Vellore. It opened its account in Greater Chennai Corporation with Uma Anandhan, defeating the Congress.

However, the party's vote share did not touch double digits in any corporation other than Nagercoil. It came close to 10 percent in Madurai, where the party got 9.15 percent of the votes. In Coimbatore, perceived as a city where it has the party's considerable presence, the vote share was 8.6 percent. In the neighbouring Tiruppur, it was 8.38 percent.

Most of BJP's wins in the urban local body polls were confined to a single district – Kanyakumari – which has been a BJP stronghold since 1996. In 2011, the saffron party won more than half the seats from the same district. This election, barring Kanyakumari, BJP has won only 109 seats in 27 districts and had zero wins in at least 10 districts where it contested.

Out of the 200 wards in the Greater Chennai Corporation, Uma Anandan was the only BJP candidate who managed to bag a seat for the party. From endorsing Mahatma Gandhi’s assassin Nathuram Godse to supporting the caste system, Anandan had been at the centre of many controversies.

"In her ward, Mambalam, the Brahmins constitute over 70 percent of the population. This victory was a standalone one, and localised because the local polls are directly dependant on the popularity of the contestant in small areas. This doesn't mean BJP will succeed in the Assembly or parliamentary elections," said political analyst R Rangaraj.

Also, the BJP candidates lost their deposits in 82 out of 100 wards in Coimbatore, which the party proudly calls it its bastion.

What was BJP’s Gamble That Worked for Tamil Nadu?

The party's state chief, a newcomer and former IPS officer, K Annamalai, is believed to be a strong leader, capable of projecting the BJP as an alternative to the Dravidian ideology. This, especially at a time when there is leadership vacuum in the AIADMK.

However, Ramu Manivannan, former Head of Department of Politics and Public Administration, University of Madras told The Quint, "BJP is not a tree but just a creeper. It exists but isn't significant."

BJP now has a stronger footing than in 2011 because the party is in power in the Centre. The state unit is piggybacking on the welfare schemes released by the Centre. It is not like the party has gained the people's confidence at a state level."

R Rangaraj, Political Analyst

How DMK Has Positioned BJP as Its Primary Enemy

With AIADMK’s presence taking a hit in the state, the longstanding narrative of DMK vs AIADMK has, however, changed to a DMK vs BJP contest. Chief Minister MK Stalin seems to have made the BJP his primary enemy and this is being perceived as a tactic to reduce the AIADMK's clout in the state.

The DMK has been playing the ‘progressive’ card through anti-BJP, anti-Modi and anti-Brahmin politics. The party is trying to be known as the epitome of social justice with Stalin announcing the ‘All India Federation for Social Justice’ recently. Political analysts believe that this was Stalin’s way of taking the lead to forge a political alternative to the BJP.

"The way BJP conducts itself in Tamil Nadu is actually helping the DMK. The Dravidian ideology has run its course with reservation for backward castes and other issues already settled. So the DMK had very little to base their social justice movement on. But the BJP has given enough ammunition for the DMK to revive the Dravidian ideology to suit modern times, with issues such as Hindi imposition, state rights being denied and 'One nation, One registration' move.

R Rangaraj, Political Analyst

The DMK has used the NEET issue to up its ante against the Narendra Modi government and increase its appeal in Tamil Nadu.