As ‘Normal’ Monsoon Ends, India Set for Record Agricultural Output

A “normal” monsoon and adequate water in major reservoirs nationwide, coupled with more money for agriculture, have set the stage for a record agricultural output for the kharif (summer) and rabi (winter) crops of 2016.

An agricultural output of 270 million tonnes—two percent in excess of the government’s target —is expected this year.

With the southwest monsoon officially withdrawing this week, water available in 91 reservoirs nationwide is 25 percent more than the amount available in October 2015, according to Central Water Commission data. This is, however, barring Karnataka and Gujarat, which face an over-20-percent deficit in seasonal rainfall.

Against the government target of 132 million tonnes, India is set for a kharif output of 135 million tonnes, according to preliminary government estimates. The previous highest was 131 million tonnes in 2011-12.

It also appears India will meet the rabi target of 137 million tonnes, one million tonnes more than the previous high seen in 2013-14.

A third of India’s districts were faced with deficient rainfall in the June-August period, as IndiaSpend reported in August 2016. It now appears that Karnataka and Gujarat will be hardest hit. This has been stated in a October 2016 report in Monsoon Granular Review published by CRISIL, a research agency.

A “double whammy”—three successive years of deficient rainfall coupled with poor irrigation facilities—makes 13 districts in the two states the worst affected in this “normal” monsoon season, the report said.

Agriculture Reviving, but Households May Suffer

The four-month monsoon season ended within normal limits of (+/-) four percent of the 100-year average. The actual deficit was three percent — India received 97 percent of normal rainfall in the June-September period. This diverges from the prediction of six percent excess rainfall forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) when the monsoon began.

The 91 major reservoirs monitored by the Central Water Commission are at 75 percent capacity, equalling the average availability in the last 10 years.

“The share of distressed districts in all-India kharif production is just 1.7 percent. But the stress to agricultural household incomes could be high because a quarter of the kharif production in Karnataka and a third in Gujarat comes from the distressed districts,” the CRISIL report said.

Even with Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Kerala getting less-than-normal rainfall, adequate irrigation facilities will ensure that these states are not affected as much as Karnataka and Gujarat, the report said.

With the exception of some districts in some states, the picture for India’s agricultural economy looks positive. This is due to the fact that the sowing of the summer crop has crossed the end-of-September average sowing of 102.5 million hectares to reach 107.1 million hectares.

Pulses output in the kharif season was estimated to be 8.7 million tonnes, 22 percent more than the earlier record of 7.1 million tonnes achieved in 2010-11, and 60 percent more than last year’s 5.5 million tonnes.

Oilseeds production is expected to be 234 million tonnes, 4 percent more than the best of 226 million tonnes produced in 2013-14.

Bordering Regions Have Deficit, Central India in Excess

Every monsoon — whether it good (above normal) or bad (below normal) — leaves some areas inundated and some parched. In the “normal” monsoon of 2016, eight states received less than 85% of normal rain.

A normal monsoon in 2013 saw 30% and 23% deficits in Bihar and Jharkhand respectively.

In 2016, except for central India, the other three regions—northwest, southern peninsular and eastern (including northeast)—reported deficits in June-to-September rainfall.

Only four of 36 meteorological sub-divisions received more than 20 percent above normal rainfall. Drought-stricken Marathwada and the coastal strip of Konkan in Maharashtra received 22 percent and 21 percent above-normal rainfall. Two divisions of Rajasthan, west and east, received 20 percent and 32 percent above-normal rain, respectively.

Nine divisions — covering eight states — of coastal and southern Karnataka, Kerala, eastern Gujarat, Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya have received less than 80 percent of normal monsoon rain.

Twenty-three divisions — covering the whole of eastern and central India — received normal rainfall.

Cash Crops Hit, Eastern States to Benefit

The north-eastern monsoon — or the retreating monsoon, as it is called — is set to give normal rain to Tamil Nadu, southern Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Orissa, according to the IMD forecast. This will offer relief to the distressed parts of the states.

Cotton and sugarcane, the major cash crops of India, have suffered in this season. Cotton has been planted on 83 percent of normal cropped area. Its production is expected to be 11 percent less than the highest production of 360 lakh bales achieved in 2013-14.

Sugarcane is being cropped on 90 percent of normal cropped area. The season is expected to produce only 82 percent of the best cane production of 360 million tonnes achieved till date (2011-12 and 2013-14).

(Abhishek Waghmare is an analyst with IndiaSpend.)