Are Terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir Consciously Shifting Strategy?

The sharp decline in civilian deaths is a conscious decision on the part of the terrorists.

From the days when several innocents would lose their lives to high numbers of security personnel becoming primary targets now, there seems to be a shift in the way terrorists are going about their task in trouble-torn Jammu and Kashmir.

Data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal shows that civilians always outnumbered security personnel in the number of fatalities in the state till 2007. The year 2008 marked a departure from the pattern as 69 civilians lost their lives that year compared to as many as 90 security personnel.

The pattern has held since then. What is alarming is the rising vulnerability of security forces in recent years. The ratio has been the most skewed this year with 66 jawans losing their lives compared to 9 civilians.

The sharp decline in the number of civilian deaths is a conscious decision on the part of the terrorists, says Dr Ajai Sahni, Executive Director, Institute for Conflict Management and South Asia Terrorism Portal.

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Attempt to Retain Civilian Support Base

Dr Sahni says that there has been a decline in the total number of fatalities caused by terror attacks in the region and that, significantly, there is also greater penetration of the agencies and police intelligence into the community. For this reason, it’s become necessary for the terrorists to retain whatever limited support base they have among the local population.

They cannot afford indiscriminate attacks as they have engaged in in the past because that would shut down whatever limited support they have and that would dramatically increase the already substantial pool of intelligence that is going into the state.

Dr Ajai Sahni

Unlike the situation in the late ‘90s or the early 2000s, the terrorists cannot move around as freely or in the same numbers anymore. So, they have to preserve whatever limited base they have and indiscriminate civilian deaths would alienate the local population.

Projecting Insurgency, Not Terrorism

The purpose of focussing more strongly on the State and security forces is also to avoid the censure that terrorist movements receive internationally, says Dr Sahni.

There is an increasing global reaction against all patterns of Islamist terrorism and it is consequently necessary from a Pakistani perspective and a separatist perspective to project this more and more as anti-State movement than as an indiscriminate terrorist movement.

To this end, the targets shift more toward the State and there is an impetus to avoid civilian fatalities as far as possible.

Greater Deployment of Security Apparatus

The third factor is the much larger presence of security forces and intelligence apparatus. There is also better protection of civilian population available.

Thus, while it is still possible and easier to attack soft targets, attacking security personnel clearly begets more benefits for terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir. While the overall decrease in casualties due to terrorist attacks in the region is heartening, the focus on security apparatus in the state indicates a need to further strengthen intelligence and contingency protocols.

(Introduction by Mayank Mishra, Senior Editor, Quint Hindi)