How Will Trump’s Withdrawal From The Paris Accord Affect India?

To talk about preserving “national identity,” while dismissing ecological conservation, is stupid & disastrous.

The world was shocked. No one expected Trump to go this far. Everyone thought he would differentiate between electoral posturing and pragmatic policy engineering; But no, the "great" American President pulled out of the Paris climate agreement. Interestingly, he chose the ‘World Environment’ week to withdraw from the Paris pact. His announcement was peppered with name-calling, rhetoric about “American interest” and a whole lot of what he claimed were "facts".

There appears to be a rise in conservative politics all around the world, and India isn’t too far behind.

But to engage in chest-thumping about preserving “national and cultural identity,” while dismissing the idea of ecological conservation and action is petty, stupid and disastrous.

Relevance of The Paris Accord

When 195 countries signed the Paris climate agreement in December 2015, they vowed to work to limit global warming to under 2C above pre-industrial levels, and to bring down their greenhouse emissions. Then, the US had pledged to bring down its emissions by about 25 percent by 2025. Now, these emissions will rise unabated.

The Paris pact was more of an international partnership to combat climate change, rather than a legal liability imposed on each country to attain their targets. This meant that nations were free to modify targets based on local economic condition or ability. But all nations were on the same page: that strong steps had to be taken to curb rising temperatures.

India, the fourth biggest emitter of carbon dioxide in the world, departed from its usual “right to grow, right to use fossil fuel” excuse and made some stunning commitments as a nation in terms of transitioning to renewable energy. India vowed that by 2030, it would harness 40 percent of its energy from renewables.

America’s Withdrawal Will Hurt Morale, Technology Everywhere

America is the world’s second biggest polluter and has the highest per capita carbon consumption. Despite being one of the world’s strongest economies, it cited economic reasons and national “interest" as the reasons for the pullout.

The USA’s move to pull out will impact the morale of several nations. Developed nations were tasked with correcting their own course, while helping smaller nations stay on the greener path. According to a World Bank report, over 100 million people in these countries will be pushed into poverty in the next 15 years due to rising global temperatures.

In terms of resources, America was supposed to contribute USD $3 billion for the Green Climate Fund. It has so far, only contributed one-third of that amount. This deficit will affect climate initiatives in developing nations that are at high risk of global warming – most of these are in Eastern Europe, Latin America and Africa.

Asia, in general, will face a resource crunch, but it will be more in terms of a freeze on the transfer of technology that was pledged as a part of the pact. While nations like India and China depend largely on its indigenous green technology research, big-ticket innovations that were being perfected in the US will be dealt a big blow.

‘India Will Revisit Commitments To Tackle Climate Change’

The current ‘Trump crisis’ will make India, Brazil and other countries revisit their respective commitments, and instead satiate the local needs for more carbon.

In India, environmentalism has been in direct conflict with development for decades, and now, the latter will enjoy a boost. India has seen overwhelming effects of climate change in the last few years – severe drought, erratic weather conditions, stress on agriculture leading to widespread farmer suicides, and air and water contamination leading to public health disasters, to name a few. However, despite this, those in power will find a way to blame other factors, instead of working to make development sustainable.

There was always an attribution gap vis-à-vis climate change, but now things will become all the more challenging. Caught in this web is the faceless poor, who will be left to fend for themselves. After all, the rapid melting of the Arctic may wipe polar bears off the planet, but it won’t affect polluters.

America has turned out to be an irresponsible role model for the world. It is time for India and China to continue on their journey to greener economies – for social, economic and ecological reasons.

The Paris climate pact may collapse in the coming years. What India needs is a robust national climate agenda with an inclusive and integrated roadmap. After all, climate change is no hoax. It is real, just like Trump.

(Vimlendu Jha is a social entrepreneur, Yamuna-rights activist, and the founder of SwechhaIndia. He tweets at @vimlendu. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own.)