The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued a press release on Friday, 15 May, stating that the onset of the southwest monsoons, which generally hit Kerala on 30 May, is likely to get delayed to 5 June.
The IMD release stated that the south-west monsoons were an important indicator characterising the transition from hot and dry season to rainy season. As the monsoon progresses northward, towards mainland India, it provides respite from scorching summer temperatures.
IMD said it was referring to a ingeniously developed, state of the art statistical model for mapping the monsoons, with a model error of +/- 4 days.
The six predictors used in the model are, minimum temperatures over northwest India, pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south peninsula, outgoing long wave radiation over the south China sea, lower tropospheric zonal wind over the south east Indian Ocean, upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east Equatorial Indian Ocean and outgoing long wave radiation over the southwest Pacific region.
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