The Lok Sabha elections, scheduled for 2019, might be preponed to be held at the end of this year itself, as "the BJP has been losing popularity with each passing day", China's state-run Xinhua agency said in a news analysis published on 8 July.
The piece, titled 'Will India's ruling BJP prepone next general elections', says that the BJP's loss of popularity can be gleaned from its "repeated defeats in recent by-polls (in parliamentary constituencies) in politically big states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Rajasthan and Bihar."
It also cites the Lokniti-CSDS poll, pointing out how it reveals a "sharp" drop in the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
'Key Reasons for BJP's Poor Performance: Lynchings, Demonetisation and GST'
The analysis published on Xinhua details how the BJP suffered crucial bypoll defeats in Uttar Pradesh's Kairana, Gorakhpur and Phulpur, Bihar's Araria, Rajasthan's Alwar and Ajmer, West Bengal's Uluberia and Maharashtra's Bhandara-Gondia. It even refers to BJP's performance in Maharashtra's Palghar constituency as a "face-saver win".
The key reasons cited for the BJP’s poor performance in recently held by-polls could be summarised as increasing incidents of lynching on Dalits and the minority communities, particularly the Muslims over beef controversies, and the “not-so-successful” economic policies of demonetisation and GST.Xinhua News Analysis
Among the recent incidents of violence in India that the piece refers to are the clashes in Bhima-Koregaon in January this year, as well as the recent lynching of five people in Maharashtra's Dhule over child-lifting rumours.
As far as GST and demonetisation are concerned, the analysis mentions how the critics of the two economic reforms have "said that they failed to yield desired results". It even quotes former finance minister and Congress leader P Chidambaram calling GST a "Grossly Scary Tax", which "has not had a positive impact on the Indian economy".
'Things Do Not Look Easy for BJP This Time, SP-BSP a Formidable Combination'
The article states that "the BJP's poor electoral performance in recent months in states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan should be a cause of worry for those at the helm of party's affairs".
As for the threats to the BJP from Opposition parties, the article refers to the "formidable combination of two strong caste-based state-level parties: the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party in UP", along with Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress in West Bengal.
It also mentions how the saffron party's alliance with Shiv Sena "appears tattered in Maharashtra", and how the BJP-ruled states of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan – that will be going to polls later this year – are facing a wave of anti-incumbency.
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