As the Modi government’s tenure draws to a close, one might look back at the regime’s performance on the economic front and wonder what was achieved as a result of all the major decisions and initiatives.
Demonetisation, GST, insolvency Bill, Make in India, RERA, revision of GDP back series data... the list of big banner reforms is long, but now is probably the time to take stock of them.
Here are three recent reports from business dailies which show that all is not well with the Indian economy:
1. The Big Question – Where Are the Jobs?
The noise around the current government’s failure to create enough jobs has only risen with time. It probably reached a crescendo less than a month back when it was reported that unemployment touched a 45-year high.
Yet another report that has now come to light specifically highlights that unemployment has gone up among educated and skilled job seekers.
A Business Standard article quotes NSSO survey to report that between 2011-12 and 2017-18, there have been spikes up to nearly three times in unemployment among educated people looking for jobs.
Similarly, unemployment rate for skilled persons almost doubled between 2011-12 and 2017-18.
The survey suggests that the unemployment rate among educated rose the sharpest among rural men to 10.5 percent in 2017-18, compared to 3.6 percent in 2011-12.
Among women, unemployment rate in both rural and urban areas nearly doubled during the same period.
The NSSO survey defines a person to be educated if he/she has completed school studies till at least the secondary level (Class 9-10).
The survey further takes account of unemployment among individuals having received vocational or technical training. The unemployment rate for trained persons doubled to 12.4 percent in 2017-18, compared to 5.9 percent in 2011-12, the survey notes.
2. Stutter in Manufacturing Sector
Despite the government’s massive Make in India push, the NDA regime has fared poorly as far as investment in the manufacturing sector is concerned. In fact, the trend of stymied investment is not specific to manufacturing, even as it is most prominent in the sector.
Quoting reports from CMIE, a Mint report suggests that overall value of investment under this government has been less than both UPA - I and II regimes.
The report says that the flagship Make in India initiative has failed to meet its objectives of fuelling manufacturing growth both in real terms and as share of the country’s GDP.
3. An Unwanted Glut in Housing Sector
A number of experts suggested that in this year’s Budget, the government has given a dedicated push to the real estate sector.
However, a number of factors like GST on under-construction projects, confusion over RERA and the distress in the NBFCs have put brakes on activity in the real estate sector.
A report by The Economic Times recently pointed out that the value of unsold homes in top eight cities in the country has now gone up to four times the annual sales.
The report also attests to the fact that India’s non-banking lending sector has turned ‘from a multiplier to a dampener’ and is now pushing the housing sector towards huge debt due to unsold units.
(With inputs from Business Standard, Mint and The Economic Times)
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