After Amma, Second-Rung DMK and AIADMK Leaders Wait in the Wings

The fast-paced sequence of events since Jayalalithaa’s death has pushed Tamil Nadu’s political theatre into reboot.

Politics in Tamil Nadu has always been about the AIADMK and the DMK. Six months after the AIADMK prevented the DMK from coming to power, fast-paced sequence of events since September has pushed the state's political theatre into reboot, with both Dravidian parties on the cusp of change.

On 5 December, a chapter in Tamil Nadu politics that lasted over 25 years, came to an end. DMK supremo M Karunanidhi's second fierce political rival after MGR, J Jayalalithaa passed away at Apollo Hospitals. It brought to an end the bitter story of a hate-filled political rivalry between Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa.

Also Read: 5 Reasons Sasikala Becoming AIADMK Chief and TN CM Is Dangerous

It looks unlikely that at 92, Karunanidhi – who will be discharged on Friday from Kauvery Hospital – will summon the will, the energy and the health to wage another battle against a new leader of the AIADMK.

• After Jayalalithaa’s death, the second-rung leadership rallied around Sasikala (also referred to as Chinamma)
  
• The intention clearly is to build up Brand Chinnamma, with the surround sound so loud that everyone is forced to fall in line
  
• DMK is likely to start wooing AIADMK cadre to its side, to create the impression that not everyone is with Sasikala.
  
• One of the concerns within the AIADMK could be over the role of Sasikala’s family should she move up the power ladder
  
• DMK’s Stalin would like the government to fall under the weight of its own internal differences. A fresh election will be the preferred option
  

Also Read: Amma to Chinnamma: Will Sasikala Carry Jayalalithaa’s Legacy?

The Sasikala Factor

For all the dire predictions that the AIADMK will splinter, with warring caste-based factions unable to work together, the ruling party has handled the passing of the baton pretty well.

When the writing on the wall was clear after Jayalalithaa suffered a cardiac arrest on the evening of 4 December, the second-rung leadership rallied around Sasikala, the close confidante of Jayalalithaa. O Panneerselvam was sworn in as CM within two hours of Jayalalithaa's death.

That the usually superstitious party, obsessed with auspicious timings, did not think much of swearing-in a new cabinet at 1:30 am, says a lot about its determination to avoid political instability.

Also Read: In Jayalalithaa’s TN, It Is Sasikala’s Family That Runs the State

Those in the know of things within the AIADMK say Sasikala is in control. But reluctance is a virtue in Indian politics. This is why scenes of the party rank and file trooping into Veda Nilayam in Poes Garden, Jayalalithaa's residence where Sasikala resides, are being played out.

In contrast to the AIADMK’s opaque way of functioning, the party is going overboard; splashing pictures of leaders and cadre folding their hands before `Chinnamma’ (as Sasikala is called), pleading with her to take over as general secretary.

Jaya TV is interviewing just about every AIADMK party member, who then make an appeal that Sasikala should be the new party chief. The intention clearly is to build up Brand Chinnamma, with the surround sound so loud that everyone is forced to fall in line.

Sasikala Remains AIADMK’s Best Option

If there are voices of discontent within the AIADMK at Sasikala’s possible elevation, they are not articulating it yet. Because to break the party and give up on the fruits of power seems an unwise option to exercise.

In the AIADMK scheme of things, Poes Garden will still remain the temple, even if the presiding deity has changed.

The outside world may sneer at the party's choice but the fact remains that Sasikala is their best, and perhaps, only bet at the moment. None of the other leaders have a pan-AIADMK acceptability and are at best seen as district-level leaders or heading caste groups.

Sasikala’s trumpcard is that she knew Jayalalithaa’s mind. Her proximity to Amma gives her a halo, in the same way that sharing screen space with MGR gave Jayalalithaa the edge in the initial years.

Sasikala was involved in selecting candidates for assembly, Lok Sabha and local body elections, giving her immense clout. Sasikala's role was not just restricted to caring about Jayalalithaa's health, the 59-year-old also played a part in ensuring Amma stayed politically fit. She is reported to have had a say in distribution of money to candidates and for each one of the handpicked men and women, it is time to return the favour.

DMK Watching Action With Keen Interest

But things could go awry. The sword of the disproportionate assets case, where Sasikala is a co-accused, hangs over her head. The Supreme Court verdict is expected in the first quarter of 2017. Sasikala went to jail with Jayalalithaa in the case in September 2014 but both were subsequently acquitted by the Karnataka High Court in May 2015.

But the overenthusiasm of some of Sasikala’s followers to make her not just the party supremo but also chief minister, could spell trouble for the party. The public will then perceive Sasikala as power-hungry; an unknown entity whose administrative acumen is untested.

There is also no guarantee how Panneerselvam will react should he be asked to step aside yet again. Though the CM has virtually no support within the legislature party who are all on Sasikala's side, he has the image of being Amma's chosen one on two previous occasions.

That gives him currency among the cadre, who unlike the leaders, are not seen to be completely on Sasikala's side. Given that non-AIADMK parties are lying in wait for the faultlines to appear, political trouble could be one person's ambition away.

The IT raid on the Tamil Nadu chief secretary's residence in Chennai is being interpreted as a message from the BJP to the Sasikala camp not to overreach itself. The impression gaining ground is that the BJP would not want the AIADMK to splinter and would want to do backseat driving to ensure that.

Also watching with keen interest is the DMK which is likely to start wooing AIADMK cadre on to its side, just to give the impression that not everyone is with Sasikala. The possibility of a split in the legislature party for now, is ruled out.

The other smaller party leaders - Vaiko, Vijaykanth, Ramadoss - with no representation in the Assembly do not count for anything in this power tussle.

If there is one concern within the AIADMK, it is over the role Sasikala’s family could play should she move up the power ladder. Her husband, M Natarajan was persona non grata for Jayalalithaa who had forbidden Sasikala from having any contacts with her family.

But the presence of the family around Jayalalithaa's casket on 6 December, has already set the alarm bells ringing among the lower cadre and the bureaucracy.

The winds of change are likely to blow in the DMK as well. The party of the rising sun may finally see the son rise. A crucial party meeting on 20 December was to anoint MK Stalin as working president but Karunanidhi’s hospitalisation scuttled those plans.

But compared to the few ifs and buts in the AIADMK, Stalin's position in the DMK is undisputed. His elder brother, Alagiri is expelled from the DMK and has no locus standi in party matters. Besides he handed over the tickets in the assembly election and the 89 DMK legislators as also the district secretaries are personally loyal to Stalin.

The DMK realises this is its best opportunity to make a comeback. Stalin would like the government to fall under the weight of its own internal differences and efforts will be on to push the AIADMK on various issues. A fresh election, those around Stalin believe, will be the preferred option.

A day after Jayalalithaa passed away, many printing presses in Tamil Nadu got phone calls asking them to stop work on 2017 calendars. Within a few days, markets have been flooded with calendars showcasing Sasikala’s photographs, with Jayalalithaa consigned to a corner. Sasikala wil hope the new year will bring good tidings.

(The writer is a senior journalist. He can be reached at @Iamtssudhir. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)