IPL's Biggest Bet: Banking on Short-Term Gains vs Long-Term Commitment Players

With an option to hit reset, teams don't necessarily have long term plans for players they break the bank for.

For the first time in many years an Indian Premier League (IPL) auction has gone to form.

Everything went as per all the predictions made before the auction was held on Friday in Kochi. It was therefore not a surprise to look at some of the top picks on the auction table.

The amounts did come as a huge surprise but it is now a given that in a marketplace such hikes in fees are an expected outcome, specially when more than one team is after a particular player. The sides have come well researched, they do a lot of study, scout for talents and prepare meticulously for auctions.

This is a far cry from the early days in the IPL when the auctions meant that the franchises picked more on reputation than on form or practical reasons. Now sides are picking players based on hard facts and reason.

You can no longer get away with being a player of huge repute and still hope to be picked at the IPL auction- the toughest marketplace in cricket in the world.

Take the case of Shakib Al Hasan, the Bangladesh superstar. A few years ago, he would have been a definite pick in the auction, but over the past few years he has found the going tough. On the auction table, the franchises look at how and when they would be able to fit Shakib in their XI, on what kinds of pitches will he be of use for them. Hence it was hardly a surprise that Shakib did not find a place in the IPL in the last season.

That Shakib finally got into the Kolkata Knight Riders as a last-minute pick, was almost because he was a distress pick for the franchise. They were making a mess of the auction with a lot of clueless decisions, and picked him to salvage something from an otherwise forgettable day in Kochi.

As last-minute as Shakib's buy was, it was definitely not the case with some of the other picks in the auction. Just look at the top 5 buys:

1. Sam Curran: Punjab Kings (Rs 18.50 crore)

2. Cameron Green: Mumbai Indians (Rs 17.50 crore)

3. Ben Stokes: Chennai Super Kings (Rs 16.25 crore)

4. Nicholas Pooran: Lucknow Super Giants (Rs 16 crore)

5. Harry Brook: Sunrisers Hyderabad (Rs 13.25 crore)

Now these five guys have been picked almost as predicted, except maybe Pooran.

The fact that Curran, Stokes, and Brook were part of England's 2022 T20 World Cup winning squad meant that they had a head start over the others.

The moment Stokes had put in his name in the auction it was a given that he would be a huge draw at the auction. Curran’s triumphant return from injury and surgery meant that he would also attract a lot of bidders. Brook’s recent form with the bat, even though it was in the Test matches against Pakistan, as well as his overall performances in the short form cricket also ensured that he would be a big choice for the franchises.

The franchises at some level have a long-term vision in the way they have picked some uncapped Indian players, but also have a sort of short-term thinking as well.

The concept of mega auction or the idea that they completely dissolve the side and rebuild has now been cast away for good, or so we are told. So, sides can afford to retain the core of the side and look at making changes every year at what is surprisingly called ‘mini auction’ like this year.

Hence the franchises have opted to give huge sums to look at the likes of Curran, Green, Stokes, and Brook.  Pooran in that sense is a short-term pick, just as an insurance for Quinton de Kock. He may or may not be a long-term bet.

The same goes for Ben Stokes too because while he has thrown his hat in the ring this time, his commitments as England Test captain are bound to increase and may force him to opt out, say the following year to maybe prepare for an important series. Also remember the 2024 season is followed by the T20 World Cup. Most other nations would opt to have their top players return home early so that they can prepare for the event in the West Indies and the United States of America (USA).

Also, the likes of Curran are injury prone, so franchises while maintaining a long-term relationship with the player would not want to get too attached to a particular player. This will mean that they can offload a player at any given time.

Jonny Bairstow, Jofra Archer, Glenn Maxwell, Kyle Jamieson are amongst a whole host of names who are all either injured or doing rehab currently. They may or may not be available for the entire 2023 IPL season but the franchises are willing to gamble on them because they are not worried about their long-term availability except for their core players. This is a risk that Mumbai Indians took with Archer last year and hence were prepared to wait a whole year for the English spearhead to get fit.

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Then look at someone like Cameron Green, who has only recently become a top property in T20 cricket. He was pushed up the order almost by chance when David Warner was rested from a recent India tour. His performances on that very tour, before the T20 World Cup, played a big part in pushing Green as a big candidate on the auction day.

However, he is again someone Australia likes to handle with care. With an Ashes looming right at the end of the IPL in 2023, it remains to be seen how long Green is available for entire IPL seasons. Australian Test captain Pat Cummins and spearhead Mitch Starc have opted out of the IPL, hence Green will be called up home much before the season ends. But Mumbai has once again shown that they are willing to take the hit. This is because the franchises are looking at short-term gains.

This is a big change in the way the sides are punting on players this time.

The biggest mystery though remains the Pooran pick. He had a scratchy time with West Indies recently and even stepped down from the white ball captaincy. He is almost like any other West Indies player prepared to ply his skill on demand, time will only tell whether he gets a long run.

England Test talisman Joe Root was picked as an after-thought by Rajasthan, while Kane Williamson is lucky to have been picked by Gujarat Titans. Both former international captains were bought for their base price. 

Of the others the one-dimensional players are not getting picked anymore. Dawid Malan, once the top ranked T20I batter in the world, went unsold at yet another IPL auction.

Australia’s white-ball spinner Adam Zampa too was picked in the last round of the auction, while the one-time number one T20I spinner Tabraiz Shamsi continues to be ignored by the IPL. Shamsi only bowls, and offers no other skill, so the sides are prepared to take the hit by not picking him. There are many such players like Shamsi in the list of unsold names.

Then there are the likes of Mohammad Nabi who are now past their best and have been given a subtle message by the franchises.

The franchises are basically hard-nosed commercial enterprises who must look at the wins on the field and profits off it. The decisions they make, or have started making, are an indication of just how smart they have become in managing their cricketing affairs. They understand every minute aspect of the auction and hence are wiser than ever. No decision is ever taken without much research.

So, if you are one of the top picks at the auction this year, remember Santa may have come home early, but you also need to perform if he needs to make a trip next year as well.

Let the games begin!