Fourteen coaches of the Indore-Rajendranagar Patna Express derailed in Kanpur in the wee hours of Sunday morning. The accident resulted in at least 150 lives being lost while over 200 were injured.
In the aftermath of a tragedy of such massive proportions, several theories have emerged about what led to it.
1. Rail Fracture
The derailment could have been caused due to rail fracture, according to sources in the Railways. The Railways also asserted that they videographed the entire Kanpur-Jhansi track to ascertain the cause.
While the exact cause of the accident will be known after the enquiry report, prima facie evidence indicates rail fracture, the sources said.
The engine of the train did not derail whereas the coaches behind it went off the rails, giving credence to the crack theory.A Railway Officer to Hindustan Times
According to media reports, fractures on tracks are caused due to poor maintenance and lack of proper infrastructure. A single crack may not be a big concern but missing fittings and ballast on tracks lead to multiple fractures which, in turn, cause derailment.
2. Outdated Coaches
Another possible reason emerging is that the train had Integral Coach Factory (ICF) coaches, infamous for piling up in case of accidents. Had there been stainless steel Linke Hoffman Busch (LHB) coaches, the damage could have been less as these coaches have more in-built safety features, which can absorb shock and impact of derailment more effectively and as a result do not topple.
According to a report in The Times of India:
The death toll in Sunday’s accident could have been much lower had the railways paid attention to the recommendations of the Anil Kakodkar committee on railway safety which suggested complete switching over to Linke Holfmann Bush (LHB) coaches from Integral Coach Factory (ICF) designed coaches.
The panel had said in its 2012 report:
After carefully analysing the casualties of passengers in train collisions and derailments for the past 10 years, the committee is of the view that ICF design of passenger coaches are no more safe at the present operational speeds of 100-120 kmph with trailing loads of 20-24 coaches.
Lack of funds and government’s failed attempts to allocate them was the reason why the LHB coaches had not replaced the obsolete ICF coaches.
3. Coaches Filled Beyond Capacity
According to official railway statements, close to 1,200 people were aboard the Indore-Rajendranagar Patna Express. However, other railway sources revealed to TOI that the actual number of passengers was much higher. Several hundreds of passengers were travelling without ticket or with a general one.
The number of such people could have been even around 500 which is almost half the capacity of the train.Railway official to TOI
4. Corroded Tracks
Old, corroded rails, which were in need of replacement, could have also been a reason for the train tragedy on Sunday. A site inspection carried out on Monday night by the Commissioner of Railway Safety (eastern circle) PK Acharya stated this, according to a report by Mumbai Mirror.
In a letter to the Chief Engineer, Acharya said that an almost 10-km stretch of the track was badly corroded. He also asked for a personal inspection of that section of the track by the chief engineer.
The report pointed out:
While only 232 metres of track was damaged in the derailment, the fact that a stretch of nearly 10 km is being fitted with new rails clearly indicates that the tracks required replacement and the damage had escaped routine inspections.Mumbai Mirror
5. Sabotage Against BJP
BJP leader Murli Manohar Joshi called the train tragedy an attempt to malign the government, according to Hindustan Times. Joshi called it a conspiracy to defame centre.
The theory was backed by Sakshi Maharaj, BJP’s MP from Unnao. Responding to it, Home Minister Rajnath Singh said all potential causes, including the conspiracy theory, would be probed.
While several passengers are still feared to be trapped, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has announced ex-gratia of Rs 2 lakh for the next of kin of each of those killed and Rs 50,000 each for the seriously injured.
This is the worst train accident in the country after the May 2010 disaster in West Bengal involving Gyaneshwari Express in which around 170 people were killed.
(With inputs from The Times of India,Mumbai Mirror and Hindustan Times.)
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