In the initial euphoria of the Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam, every political outfit has staked claim to credit. These are not fictional claims, for many have devolved political power to women, though insufficient.
The Indian National Congress (INC) passed the 73 and 74 Amendment Bills and many parties across states increased reservations in local governments from 33 percent to 50 percent. Further, the Janata Dal, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the INC have tabled the Women's Reservation Bill in its prior avatars.
However, they have not devolved political power without the iron hand of law upon them – except for the Trinamool Congress (TMC), the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and the Janata Dal United (JDU), who have fielded a critical mass of female candidates in multiple elections.
Still, no political party in India is gender-balanced in the rungs of its party hierarchy. They have not groomed a pipeline of female leaders but rather field women ad hoc, per want of their party chiefs. Political expediency, rather than systematic power sharing, is the goal for most.
True credit for forcing the bill allowing 33 percent reservation for women in the Lok Sabha, and the state Assemblies, should go to the women of India, who have bridged that persistent 10 percent point gap versus male voting percentages since 2009, levelling in 2019. The tired trope that women do not vote independently has been trounced repeatedly, even in the macho patriarchal Hindi belt.
Just a Political Campaign?
Cut to now, elections are around the corner even as the Bharatiya Janata Dal (BJP) is staring at misgovernance. Manipur continues to ravage its women; a flaccid economy lost them the women of Karnataka; Telangana and Rajasthan polls look ominous for the BJP; and the Opposition has united formidably, with the wind beneath INDIA's wings.
Notwithstanding Prime Minister Narendra Modi's personal popularity, ground sentiment is less than savory and this has put the fear of the voter in the ruling party. They needed a campaign to stem the stench.
One that can be packaged glamorously, earn credit with significant sections of voters, gain the nod of the core and cadre, and put the opposition on the back-foot.
Voila! The Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam!
The 15-Year Sunset Clause: Will it be Enough?
This bill, just like the earlier 108th Amendment, reserves 33 percent seats for women in national and state legislatures on a rotational basis, and ensures the same within the SC/ST quota.
It departs from the earlier version in replicating the quota in the National Capital Territory (NCT), but not in other union territories. It also ties the gender quota to next census and pursuant delimitation, with timeframe totally unspecified.
There is further mischief in the Bill – a 15-year sunset clause, tied to "commencement," with worrisome verbiage. The bill, in its own words, is to "come into force" as soon as it is notified by the government, which could be before the end of 2023.
It is to "take effect" only after the next census and delimitation (initiated post 2026 as per Article 82) even though it is in force. Therefore the country gets no benefit from the Act at least until 2034 or beyond. Then, it is to "expire" 15 years from "such commencement."
It is left entirely unclear if commencement is equivalent to coming into force or taking effect.
The charitable interpretation would be shoddy drafting; in the worst case, the Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam is the ultimate Disappearing Act.
The choice of 15 years as half-life for women's reservation, regardless of tying it to commencement, is also suspect.
Prior example from the Constitutional quota for people from the SC/ST communities, with the year sunset clause, has proved beyond any doubt that even 75 years are too short to raze deeply entrenched inequities.
Reasonable grandfathering should set a threshold for women's political agency, not an arbitrary duration of 15 years.
Putting the Women's Reservation Bill Under the Lens
Under these lenses, the bill turns initial jubilation into disbelief. The simplest explanation is that the objective of the bill is not women's political power but the women's vote, achieved without alienating the BJP base.
The BJP/Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) base has an aversion to reservation. Many of its leaders have stated so publicly in the past, and not just for women's reservation, but the concept in general.
A straightforward Women's Reservation Bill is sure to disgruntle not just the cadre but their party leaders and elected male representatives who could lose their seats and may defect. Enter, clauses with indeterminate timeframes and premature expiration dates.
Male BJP leaders will have no threat of power erosion, women will receive no political power for the foreseeable future and credit accrues instantly.
Further, legislation turned into a campaign, by summoning a rushed special session of Parliament to set narrative and capitalize gains.
What Is the Bill Really About?
Overall, this is not a bill in good faith. Its objective is not gender-balanced governance in India.
If so, it could have been delivered starting 2019, with female-friendly parties as its allies in the Rajya Sabha. Its objective is certainly not women's political power, as it announces an indeterminate wait for already absent power.
What the bill is about, is claiming the women's vote in 2024 on a promise, that will not materialise in the next 10 years, while retaining the lollipop with men.
What the BJP has failed to account for in its calculus is that women do not vote for promises – they vote with their feet on delivered goods. Be it gas cylinders, law and order, electricity, bus rides, maternity or reservation in jobs, women have voted for the basis of proof in the pudding.
Perhaps for the first time in the history of India, an Act is being passed in the present, to redress past wrongdoings, for affirmative action in an unspecified future time, by when the sun might almost set on the very Act.
But before any of this happens, political capital is to be seized tout de suite. Despite the skullduggery, there is one undeniable positive. Once enacted, the Women's Reservation Bill cannot be undone.
No political party dare rescind and risk being dubbed anti-women.
It is unequivocally a step forward simply by virtue of being passed, albeit a sham of a bill, leaving the door ajar for amendments if the political dispensation changes.
(Tara Krishnaswamy is the co-founder of Political Shakti. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author's own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)