Why North Korea Is Right Where It Wants to Be – Between US & China

As the US President and North Korean leader had their historic meeting, China was certainly watching closely.

It’s been a dizzying ride trying to keep track of the dance US President Donald Trump and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un have been doing in their quest for a meeting. Will they? Won’t they? After a few barbed exchanges and one cancellation, they did, on 12 June.

With a sitting US President in a one-on-one talk with the sitting North Korean Supreme Leader for the very first time, all eyes were on this historic meet – no one’s more so than China’s. Virtually a client state, North Korea has enjoyed close relations with China, its only benefactor since its international pariah status. What does China want?

China On the Outside Looking In

For decades, China has been North Korea's sole benefactor, main trade partner, and the closest thing it has to a friend. Why?

To hear China tell it, it is pure self-preservation – the collapse of the North Korean regime, either economic or military, would lead to millions of desperate North Korean refugees streaming across the border, threatening domestic turmoil within China itself. China says it is committed to the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula, and it has largely gone along with the US and the UN sanctions, even condemning the North when it tests missiles and offers other provocations – but has been restrained by way of concrete action.

In fact, CFR reports that China's bilateral trade with North Korea has grown steadily, increasing tenfold from 2000-2015, peaking in 2014 at $6.86 billion.

China accounts for about 90 percent of North Korea’s total trade volume, according to the CFR report, and though imports from the hermit kingdom fell by 16.7 percent in 2017, exports were up by 20.9 percent.

As analysts have long argued, China may benefit in other ways from its rogue state on a leash – a buffer state between itself and South Korea, where thousands of US troops are stationed.

What the Middle Kingdom Wants from the Hermit Kingdom

For China, there are two priorities:

1. Avoiding a refugee influx from regime collapse in North Korea
2. Affecting a pull-back of US troops in the region, particularly from South Korea

With North Korea expected to extract concessions from the US in return for taking steps towards denuclearisation – nominal or otherwise – Chinese President Xi Jinping likely sees an opportunity to advance his interests, leveraging Kim Jong Un's dependence on its giant neighbour.

In March, just days after Kim extended a summit invitation to Trump that was swiftly accepted by the mercurial US President, Xi received Kim warmly in Beijing for the first time – it was Kim's first official trip abroad since coming to power in 2011. And in May, the two met once again, signalling what observers thought might be a rapprochement in light of the looming Trump-Kim meet, after a neighbourly relationship that Beijing had set on ice following the North's repeated nuclear provocations in the form of ballistic missile tests.

China's Worst Fear

In what may be a sign of China's anxiety over losing its place as North Korea's prime influencer, early June saw Air China resuming flights to Pyongyang, The Wall Street Journal reported, just a week before the Trump-Kim summit. The flights had been suspended in November 2017 citing low demand.

Analysts quoted by The New York Times shed light on China's 'jitters' over a potential freeze-out, if Kim plays his cards right. The worst-case scenario here for China would be if Kim turns to Trump for sanctions relief and aid, reducing its dependence on China. A North Korea-US-South Korea rapprochement would put China on edge, encircled on its own doorstep.

If you look at history, North Korea is not sure of China, and has a kind of revenge mentality. The worst outcome is that the United States, South Korea and North Korea all get together and China gets knocked out.

Shen Zhuhua, Prominent Chinese Historian on North Korea to NYT

A small country with two global giants vying for its attention ahead of the summit, North Korea was undoubtedly looking to squeeze every concession from both. While Trump is an unpredictable and unreliable partner in negotiations to be sure, so is Kim Jong Un. China has good reason to worry.