The decision of Indian film fraternity to not release their movies in Pakistan following Pulwama attack will have a fleeting effect on the box office collections, believe experts.
In the wake of the 14 February terror attack, which claimed the lives of 40 CRPF jawans, makers of films such as Total Dhamaal, Luka Chuppi, Arjun Patiala, Notebook and Kabir Singh have announced not to screen the movies in the neighbouring country.
Bollywood trade analyst Taran Adarsh says Indian films have great viewership in Pakistan, but the collection from the country does not contribute much to the worldwide box office numbers of Hindi films. He, however, believes it would be detrimental to the earnings of distributors in Pakistan.
“There are about 150 screens in Pakistan. Like us, they also love Hindi movies. They make very few films. Also, you cannot show Hollywood films round-the-clock. Indian films are a big addiction... It is going to be tough for them, as it is a small market for us.”Taran Adarsh
Echoing Adarsh's views, film exhibitor Akshay Rathi says the exhibition sector of Pakistan will be more affected by the decision.
"The impact of Indian films not releasing in Pakistan will be massive on exhibition sector there, but it will be minuscule for Indian producers. Lots of consumption of Indian films happens through piracy and the kind of collection that comes out of Pakistan is very less as compared to other territories," he adds.
According to Rathi, on an average, Hindi films do a business of about Rs 4-7 crores in Pakistan.
The biggest hit from Bollywood in Pakistan is Salman Khan's 2016 Eid blockbuster Sultan, amassing Rs 37 crore. Salman's 2015 cross-border drama Bajrangi Bhaijaan minted Rs 23 crore in the country.
Rahul Kadbet, Vice President, Programming at Carnival Cinemas, says, Pakistan contributes around "four to six" percent to the total collection of Indian films.
"The losses can be amortized from other avenues like exploiting new media platforms. A blockbuster Indian film hardly grosses four to six percent of Indian box office in Pakistan and for a regular film, it is even less."
"This is actually a big loss for them because their industry depends up to 70 percent on Bollywood and Hollywood content," Kadbet adds.
Pakistani filmmaker Sohail Khan, however, believes Indian film industry will suffer losses as the country contributes a good share to the worldwide collections of Bollywood films.
“The Indian film industry makes a lot of money by screening movies in Pakistan. My idea is they make Rs 700-800 billion annually as over 100 films are exported and shown in Pakistan. So it is a big business for them and they will also lose money by this decision.”Sohail Khan
"I think there will be a short term impact on film and cinema business here due to this decision but in the long term it would be good that Indian films are not shown in Pakistan," he adds.
The director says no collective decision has been taken by Indian film associations on the future of releasing films in Pakistan.
"Only a few individuals have announced that they will not screen films in Pakistan. I have not seen any such collective decision by any association. I think it will not be very effective as there are people in India who would not like to lose market in Pakistan...Legally, Indian films are still banned in Pakistan and they are shown when a No- Objection Certificate is issued by authorities," he says.
Prior to Pulwama attack, "Sanju", "Simmba", "Zero" and "Manikarnika: The Queen of Jhansi" were some of the big Indian films that released in Pakistan.
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