Oscars 2019: Our Predictions on the Big Winners This Year

Will ‘Roma’ bag Best Picture?

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) appears to have really tried their best to take inspiration from Indian award shows. Bizarre ideas like creating a separate category called Best Popular Film and threats to give out major technical awards during commercial breaks made news but were ultimately rolled back for raising a stink to the high heavens. We are grateful.

On the other hand, the Academy is also adding several voices every year to evolve into an institution of inclusion and diversity. Will that reflect in its choices this edition?

The Oscars are back and so are we to have another go at a game of guessing. Here’s who we think will be the big winners in 2019.

BEST PICTURE

Nominees:
Roma
BlackKklansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
A Star Is Born
Vice

Winner: If the award season is anything to go by, it has come down to Roma versus Green Book. The former has won the honours at BAFTA and the Directors Guild of America (DGA) while the latter has managed to pick up the Producers Guild of America (PGA) and the Golden Globe. Unlike Green Book, Roma has gargantuan obstacles to clear: it’s a Netflix project and a film that operates in foreign tongue, both of which can annoy traditional Academy members. But there’s no denying the film’s overwhelming power and auteurist ambition and the fact that a growing number of people are acknowledging it as an instant classic by giving it weighty awards. It’s about time the Academy bestows its highest honour to a truly outstanding foreign film. That would be a sincere step towards making America great again.

Spoiler Alert: Never undermine crowd pleasers. Green Book enthusiasts are quietly plotting to capsize Roma’s boat.

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees:

Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Yorgios Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlackKklansman
Adam McKay, Vice
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War

Winner: No other category this year is more upset-proof than the assembly of directors. Roma, Alfonso Cuarón’s meditative masterpiece on memory has swept critics off their feet and has pocketed all the key trophies including the Golden Globe, BAFTA, DGA and Critics’ Choice. He is clearly the favourite.

Spoiler Alert: Not a single person in sight.

BEST ACTOR

Nominees:

Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Winner: Except Bradley Cooper, everyone here is essaying a biographical role, something the Oscar voters love. But the rivalry at the end of the awards season has come down to Christian Bale and Rami Malek. While Bale has another physical transformation on display, it’s Malek who is making his case stronger with wins at the Golden Globe, BAFTA and Screen Actors Guild Awards. Despite the Bryan Singer scandal, Malek has somehow managed to steer clear of any blot, positioning himself as the correct vote to spite Singer. Looks like Queen will be the kingmaker.

Spoiler Alert: From mounds of believable make-up to wicked games, Bale has everything in his role to spoil Malek’s party.

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees:

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Winner: Every single performance here is stirring enough to befit the trophy, but Oscar lobbying doesn’t believe in that utopia. The battle is now between two veterans: Glenn Close and Olivia Colman. Both have split the awards season with significant wins and both are acting royalty. But the weight seems to be tilting towards Close. She is not only widely respected in the industry, she has also been snubbed six times in past. It can be that ‘make-up’ award. Plus her role is one of those performances that can elevate a film by its sheer force. Add to that, The Wife reflects the current mood of #TimesUp and #MeToo, and her inspiring speech at the Golden Globe has only added heft to the proceedings. And come on, aren’t we all fans of Close?

Spoiler Alert: If not Close, clearly it should be Colman, right? Well, to disrupt the veterans’ night, Lady Gaga can be the chosen candidate. After all, the Academy has a strong penchant for putting ingénues on the dais.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees:

Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Winner: Compared to other acting departments, this still has a little open field. Despite the snubs suffered by If Beale Street Could Talk in big categories, Regina King’s role has maintained heat with some big wins including the Golden Globe, and Critics’ Choice awards. On the other hand, Rachel Weisz has slowly gained momentum with a BAFTA win, and The Favourite has an edge for being the most-nominated film along with Roma. Between the two, our gut feeling says it is Weisz.

Spoiler Alert: If not Weisz, Regina King in all likelihood. Or perhaps a catfight.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees:

Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlackKklansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice

Winner: Despite controversies and mixed critical reception, Green Book has stayed in the race thanks to its lead performances. Mahershala Ali, like Cuarón, has commanded the awards season with clean hits. There seems to be no stopping his second Oscar.

Spoiler Alert: Seems like a very, very long shot, but Richard E Grant’s delightfully drunk presence can be a surprise.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Nominees:

The Favourite (Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara)
First Reformed (Paul Schrader)
Green Book (Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie and Peter Farrelly)
Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)
Vice (Adam McKay)

Winner: This category has given mixed signals this award season. For example, the Writers Guild of America (WGA) winner Eighth Grade didn’t even make it to the nominations. The odds are in favour of The Favourite for its subversive madness and an overall wholesomeness that has measured up to so many nominations.

Spoiler Alter: If the court intrigue doesn’t delight the Academy members, it’s a sight to finish between Green Book and First Reformed.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nominees:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Joel and Ethan Coen)
BlackkKlansman (Charlie Wachtel, DAvid Rabinowitz, Kevin Wilmott and Spike Lee)
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty)
If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)
A Star Is Born (Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters)

Winner: Though the sudden win by Can You Ever Forgive Me? at the WGA was a shocker, all the signs are hinting at Spike Lee and his compatriots for their work in BlackkKlansman. Since the directorial trophy is reserved for the Mexican this year, the Academy will try to make up for it by giving the long-serving writer-director one trophy at least. Lee it is.

Spoiler Alert: Could it be Barry Jenkins for his stellar work in If Beale Street Could Talk? Faint chance, but there’s no harm in wishing for moonlight.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Nominees:

Cold War (Łukasz Żal)
The Favourite (Robbie Ryan)
Never Look Away (Caleb Deschanel)
Roma (Alfonso Cuarón)
A Star Is Born (Matthew Libatique)

Winner: A very curious mix, with mostly foreign names, this category has its victor sealed in the Mexican master. A deeply personal odyssey, curated with poetic grandeur, Roma’s black-and-white images have established Cuarón as a capable cinematographer, in the league of his compatriot Emmanuel ‘Chivo’ Lubezki. Considering the momentum in favour of Roma, and its ceaseless wins, there is very little room for doubt.

Spoiler Alert: Łukasz Żal, the Polish cinematographer’s work in Cold War was strikingly committed in bringing out pathos in the fate-bound romance. It would be definitely be worthy of claiming Cuarón’s prize.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Nominees:

Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse

Winner: Incredibles 2 made tons of money while also air-kissing the critics. But it is Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse that has dazzled voters everywhere with its ambition and verve. Spidey is a locked choice, we say.

Spoiler Alert: No, thanks.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Nominees:

Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)

Winner: This should be an easy walk for Cuarón. Roma all the way.

Spoiler Alert: Pawel Pawlikowski’s gorgeous heartbreaker, Cold War, has managed big nominations for a foreign film, and it is the only film that can be a spot of bother for Roma. But the chances are too muted.

(The writer is a journalist, a screenwriter, and a content developer who believes in the insanity of words, in print or otherwise. He tweets @RanjibMazumder)