As Congress leader Rahul Gandhi won Uttar Pradesh's Rae Bareli by over 3.9 lakh votes and retained Kerala's Wayanad by about 3.5 lakh votes, the question on the minds of voters, political analysts, and Congress leaders is – which seat would he choose?
Speaking at a rally in Kerala's Malappuram on Wednesday, 12 June, Rahul said: "Back to the question of Wayanad or Rae Bareli. What I will commit to you is that both Wayanad and Rae Bareli will be happy with my decision."
After the Congress-led INDIA bloc's performance in Uttar Pradesh – where it won 43 out of 80 seats – party leaders and political experts say it would be more prudent for Gandhi to retain his family's fortress, Rae Bareli.
"As a national leader, it would be better if he chooses Rae Bareli, which is north India's political hotspot," opined Jacob George, a senior journalist and political observer from Kerala.
Rae Bareli was the only seat the Congress won in Uttar Pradesh in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. It has been in the Gandhi family for decades. This time, the party increased its tally to six in the state, including Amethi, which Rahul had lost to BJP leader Smriti Irani in the previous polls.
Back then, it was Congress bastion Wayanad that sent him to the Parliament.
In a video statement released after the election results on 4 June, Rahul had said he would retain both seats if he could. But in the event of him choosing Rae Bareli, what happens to Wayanad?
'We Want Priyanka to Contest'
Speculation is rife that if Rahul Gandhi exits Wayanad, his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra may contest from the seat.
"We want Rahul Gandhi to stay here, but as the situation has changed in north India, retaining Rae Bareli may be good for the party. We are not unhappy with that," Wayanad district Congress president ND Appachan told The Quint.
He added: "Maybe Priyanka Gandhi can contest from here. Nothing has been decided, it is still being discussed by the Congress high command. But in case Rahul Gandhi vacates this seat, we would want Priyanka to contest from here. I am just sharing my personal opinion."
"Of course, if Priyanka contests from here, she will easily win. The people of Wayanad will be happy and welcome her. She would be an apt choice for the Congress nationally and state-wise," opined George.
A senior journalist from Wayanad told The Quint on the condition of anonymity:
"Wayanad has given him support when he needed it. So, he wouldn't just abandon the people of Wayanad. There is talk among the public that Priyanka would contest from here. That is their desire."
The Wayanad Parliamentary constituency comprises three Assembly seats in Wayanad district, three in Malappuram district, and one in Kozhikode district. It has significant populations of tribals and minorities and is considered a Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) stronghold, with strong presence of the Indian Union of Muslim League (a Congress ally) that has played a significant role in ensuring Rahul's victory.
Wayanad, a fairly new constituency in Kerala, first went to polls in 2009. MI Shanavas, a Congressman, was its first MP. He won again in 2014 but passed away in 2018 due to an illness.
In 2019, when Rahul Gandhi chose Wayanad as his safe seat, he won by a massive majority of over 4 lakh votes. While his margin has come down this time due to multiple factors, it is still a big win, making the seat imperative to the Congress.
The Quint had previously reported how Congress insiders had suggested that potential infighting in the Congress in Kerala over the Wayanad seat could be avoided if Priyanka were to contest the bye-election (if Rahul vacated the seat). According to sources, Priyanka's candidacy in Wayanad could also bolster the party's chances of returning to power in the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections.
If Not Gandhis, Then Who?
Another name being floated in political circles as Rahul Gandhi's potential replacement is that of K Muraleedharan. The son of former Kerala chief minister K Karunakaran, Muraleedharan was fielded in the Thrissur Lok Sabha constituency this time.
Known among party workers as a 'giant killer', the Congress had pinned its hopes on Muraleedharan to defeat the BJP's Suresh Gopi, who was gaining in popularity in the Thrissur constituency in the run-up to the polls. Not only did Muraleedharan fail to defeat Gopi – who opened the BJP's account in Kerala – he also came third after the CPI's VS Sunil Kumar.
"After his loss in Thrissur, Muraleedharan has been very unhappy and worried. Since Wayanad is a Congress bastion, he could be chosen by the party," opined George.
Muraleedharan served as an MP of Kozhikode in 1999 when Wayanad was part of the Parliamentary constituency.
"Meanwhile, several Muslim organisations have recommended to the party that a Muslim candidate would be more apt for the constituency, considering how Muslim representation is dwindling in Parliament. And that is a valid demand," George added.
IUML leader PK Kunhalikutty had previously stated that Rahul's decision to contest from Rae Bareli would bolster the prospects of the INDIA front.
What About Annie Raja?
The CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) had fielded senior CPI leader Annie Raja against Rahul Gandhi this time. Two partners of the INDIA bloc fielding two national leaders in Wayanad emerged as a sore point during the poll campaigns, but electorally speaking, it made only a minimal dent in Rahul's vote share.
Political observers in Kerala, however, opined that Raja was a formidable opponent to Rahul and was described as "grounded" despite her national prominence.
"It was a landmark contest for her, though not an equal one. Wayanad is overwhelmingly UDF-dominant. But this is the first time that the people of Wayanad got to know of the caliber of Annie Raja," a senior journalist said.
"Had the INDIA front come to power, Annie Raja would have had an important role to play in the government. Her campaigns proved that she is a formidable opponent, though she managed to increase the CPI’s vote share only marginally," George told The Quint.
There is even speculation that Raja may be sent to the Rajya Sabha.
Elections to three seats in Rajya Sabha in Kerala will be vacant soon. The tenure of Kerala Congress’ Jose K Mani, CPI leader Binoy Biswam, and CPI(M) leader Elamaram Kareem will end on 1 July.
(This story was originally published on 8 June. It has been republished with edits from The Quint's archives.)
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