Why Udhampur Seat Has Become a Nightmare for BJP & Jitendra Singh

With Lal Singh in the fray and NC & PDP backing Congress, Udhampur has become difficult for BJP’s Jitendra SIngh.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP pulled off a major upset in the Udhampur Doda constituency in Jammu and Kashmir, where Jitendra Singh defeated veteran Congress leader and former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Ghulam Nabi Azad by a a little over 60,000 votes.

Besides a broader wave in favour of Narendra Modi and against the Congress, two micro factors contributed to Jitendra Singh’s win:

• PDP candidate Mohammad Arshad Malik polled over 30,000 votes. Most of these are from pockets where Muslim voters are in comparatively higher numbers such as Kishtwar, Ramban, Banihal, Gool Arnas and Gulab Garh. Most of these votes would probably have gone to the Congress.
• Former Udhampur MP Chaudhary Lal Singh had rebelled from the Congress and had decided to harm his former party in the seat.

But then what goes around, comes around. The same two factors are now harming Jitendra Singh’s chances, as Udhampur goes to vote on Thursday, 18 April.

United Opposition

In both the seats in the Jammu region – Jammu and Udhampur – the National Conference and People’s Democratic Party have decided not to field candidates, in effect, supporting the Congress.

In Udhampur, Congress has fielded Vikramaditya Singh, who hails from the Dogra royal family and is the son of senior Congress leader Dr Karan Singh. With the NC and the PDP not putting up candidates, the nearly 30 percent Muslim votes in the constituency are likely to consolidate behind Vikramaditya Singh.

This is a complete reversal from the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, in which the PDP candidate had harmed the prospects of the Congress.

This might have helped the Congress in Jammu as well, which voted in the first phase of polling. In 2014, BJP’s Jugal Kishore Sharma won this seat by over 2.5 lakh votes and the PDP’s Yashpal Sharma polled nearly 1.7 lakh votes, mostly in Muslim dominated segments like Poonch Haveli, Mendhar, Surankote, Kalakote, Rajouri and Darhal. Most of these votes may now end up with the Congress but the BJP’s huge margin last time makes Jammu a better bet for the party than Udhampur.

Lal Singh’s Defiance

Chaudhary Lal Singh, the Dogra strongman whose rebellion had cost the Congress the Udhampur seat in 2014, has now turned his ire to the BJP, the party he was part of for the past five years.

Lal Singh is fighting from both the seats under the banner of his new outfit: Dogra Swabhiman Sangathan. His sole plank is the assertion of Hindu Dogra pride and resisting what he calls the “Kashmir-centric” nature of politics in Jammu and Kashmir.

Remember, Lal Singh had openly supported those accused in the ghastly rape of a little child in Kathua.

He is also alleged to have threatened Gujjar Muslims with a “1947 like” genocide a few years ago.

Lal Singh’s positions are even more extreme than that of the BJP and it appears that most of the votes he gets would be at the party’s expense.

The combined effect of a united Opposition and Lal Singh’s defiance could make Udhampur an extremely difficult seat for the BJP.