Exit polls for the Telangana Assembly (which went to polls on Thursday, 30 November) have largely given a massive edge to the Congress party, pushing Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao's Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) to a position of disadvantage.
According to exit poll projections by CVoter, the Congress is set to get 49-65 seats, BRS 38-54 seats, BJP 5-13 seats, and others (AIMIM) 5-9 seats.
The Republic TV's P-Marq and Matrize survey has predicted 58-68 seats for the Congress, 46-56 seats for the BRS, 4-9 seats for the BJP, and 5-7 seats for the AIMIM.
News24's Today's Chanakya, however, has given a clear mandate to the Congress with 71 seats. The BRS is predicted to get 33 seats, BJP 7 seats, and others (AIMIM) 8 seats.
CNN's Jan Ki Baat gave the Congress a lead over the BRS with 48-64 seats. The BRS is predicted to get 40-55 seats, BJP 7-13 seats, and AIMIM 4-7 seats.
The India Today-MyAxis India exit polls survey is yet to be released for Telangana.
What are some of the key questions that the exit polls raise? The Quint takes a look.
Why Has an Edge Been Predicted for Congress?
KCR's BRS – which won 88 seats in 2018 and 63 seats in the 2014 Assembly polls – is aiming for a hat-trick in Telangana, which is not a common phenomenon in the Telugu states. But anti-incumbency is evident, with unemployment among youth and welfare schemes like Dalit Bandhu and double-bedroom houses being bones of contention.
As the anti-incumbency votes are expected to either go to the Congress or the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), let's look at who has the edge here.
The Congress was near-destroyed in the 2018 elections and faced subsequent defeats in by-elections and municipal elections, which coincided with the rise of the BJP.
But after the Congress' Karnataka win in May this year, it received enough boost to alter perceptions in Telangana. The party announced its six guarantees well ahead in September, and they focused on women, minorities, farmers, and the marginalised – though their promises were similar to that of KCR's existing schemes.
The party's campaign against the BRS was also based on emotions. They alleged a BRS-BJP nexus to split minority votes (despite the BRS' poll alliance with the AIMIM).
"They also focused on the alleged 'arrogance' of KCR and his MLAs – and the alleged 'arrogance' of Andhra Pradesh leaders is something that moved the people of Telangana during the statehood movement," points out R Pridhvi Raj, a political analyst from the state.
As for the BJP, The Quint had previously reported that the party may not have been playing to win in Telangana but to force a hung assembly. The BJP, with an agenda to polarise votes, has mostly been focusing on seats like Mudhole, Nirmal, Koratla, Nizamabad Urban, Huzurabad, Goshamahal, and Karimnagar, which fall in Hyderabad and north Telangana.
They were looking to polarise votes in these areas, where there is a strong AIMIM presence, and also fielded three of its four MPs as MLA candidates this time.
As per the polls, the BJP may up its tally of the current three seats, but its main contender in some of these seats is not the Congress, but the BRS.
If There's Hung Assembly, Who Benefits?
If both the BRS and Congress get 45-50 seats, the former would most likely team up with the AIMIM. But the question is: will it be able to meet the magic number by surpassing the Congress and the BJP?
The AIMIM itself is predicted to get not more than seven seats, which means they may retain their hold over Old City and no more (Jubilee Hills and Rajendranagar are the other two seats they're contesting from). The party is also facing stiff competition from the Congress in the Nampally seat.
"On the other hand, if a neck-and-neck fight happens, there may be defections. The BRS wouldn't want to let go of power unless the tally has come down drastically. The party, in the past, has forced defections from the Congress," opines Pridhvi Raj.
"Though defections can happen from either side, if there is a hung assembly, one can't rule out a KCR hat-trick," he adds.
Since 1956, united Andhra Pradesh has never seen an uncertain verdict; the Telugu-speaking population has always given a clear majority to one party or the other during an Assembly election. Will history be rewritten this time?
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