Unified or in Alliance With BJP – What Can Stop AIADMK From 'Imploding' in TN?

Jayalalithaa managed to bounce back because of her charismatic leadership. Can Palaniswamy take some firm steps?

In December 2015, one year before her death, former Tamil Nadu chief minister and AIADMK supremo J Jayalalithaa told party cadres,

"Mark my words... I am telling you there is only victory for us from now on. We will be victorious forever."

Nine years later, the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha results are far from what the late chief minister had then proclaimed.

The DMK-led INDIA bloc's clean sweep in Tamil Nadu has left the AIADMK grappling with questions about its future. Unlike in 2019, when the AIADMK won one constituency, the party failed to win a single seat this time.

But what's behind the party's implosion? Can Edappadi K Palaniswami revive the AIADMK? Did leaving the BJP backfire? The Quint decodes.

What Went Wrong For the AIADMK

According to retired professor C Pithchandi, the results of the 1996, 2004, and 2024 elections cannot be compared. In both 1996 and 2004, the AIADMK, under Jayalalithaa, was defeated by the DMK and its allies in all the 39 seats. But the difference was that the party ended up in the second place in the state then.

"We cannot compare the 1996 and 2004 elections with the 2024 elections, because at the time, the AIADMK was united under a firm leadership. It lost the elections only because of the anti-incumbency that prevailed against Jayalalithaa. But now, the AIADMK vote bank is weakened."

C Pithchandi to The Quint

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the AIADMK managed to increase its vote share negligibly from 19.39 to 20.46 percent, the Election Commission data showed. In addition, the party was pushed to the third place in at least 12 seats by its former ally Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Pithchandi said that Palaniswami must introspect. "Jayalalithaa managed to bounce back because of her charismatic leadership and her connection with the grassroots cadres. It is high time that Palaniswamy introspects and takes some firm steps. He should be aggressive like Jayalalithaa," he said.

Meanwhile, Dhanaraj, a senior journalist from Tamil Nadu, opined:

"The fact that Palaniswamy wasn't able to form a strong alliance (after its split with the BJP in September 2023) is apparent. There were no known faces who were given tickets to contest or who were strong enough to appeal to the voters in absence of a leader like Jayalalithaa."

Senior journalist Dhanaraj to The Quint

After the 2024 results, the AIADMK and the BJP kicked off a war of words. RB Udhayakumar, AIADMK leader and Deputy Leader of the Opposition in the state, expressed his anguish by stating that the BJP ruined the winning opportunity of the NDA alliance.

"The BJP state leadership (Annamalai) kept the alliance skeptical by making unwarranted comments against the AIADMK leadership – and that is the cause for such misery," he said.

In response, state BJP chief Annamalai said that it was the AIADMK that pushed the BJP to decide on contesting in a new alliance in the state. "Now they (AIADMK) say if the BJP and the AIADMK were together, it would have made a change in the results. They should have thought of this before ditching us," he told the media.

Dent in AIADMK's Vote Bank

The AIADMK, which proclaims to have nearly 1.5 crore-strong cadre, secured only 89.26 lakh votes. Its ally DMDK, which contested five seats in the alliance, secured 11.28 lakh votes. Overall, the AIADMK alliance got nearly one crore votes.

The party also lost its deposit in seven constituencies, including South Chennai, Kanniyakumari, Theni, Thoothukudi, Tirunelveli, Vellore, and Puducherry. In 26 constituencies, the party secured second place, and in 12 constituencies, the AIADMK was pushed to the third place. In Kanniyakumari, the AIADMK candidate got fourth place.

Political analyst Sumanth Raman explained that it is apparent that a share of AIADMK votes was transferred to the BJP. "Where does the BJP get these votes from? Logically speaking, a DMK supporter will not vote for the BJP. It is the first-time voters and the votes of the AIADMK that were transferred to the BJP – and that's how the BJP managed to secure 11.24 percent vote share," he said.

A Idaya Kumar, a retired political professor, opined, "There is an anti-incumbency against the ruling DMK government. It is evident from the vote share that dropped to 26.93 percent. But those votes were split between the AIADMK and the BJP. If the votes secured by the two parties are combined, the DMK would have lost in 13 places, including in Dharmapuri, Arani, Kallakuruchi, Salem, Namakkal, Coimbatore, Tenkasi, Krishnagiri, Villupuram, Chidambaram, Tiruppur, Cuddalore, and Virudhunagar constituencies."

However, he added, "An election is always not about arithmetic alone. The chemistry between the parties is vital. People will not accept parties with different ideologies going together for an election only to get votes. Even in the last Assembly elections, the AIADMK's alliance with the BJP was a factor behind its defeat," Kumar said.

Weak Candidates – A Cause for Defeat?

The AIADMK's candidate selection also played a major factor in deciding the party's performance in many places. Contrary to last time, several new faces were given tickets by the party. The BJP, however, fielded most of its prominent faces.

"From Tamilisai Soundararajan to Pon Radhakrishnan, the saffron party brought all its leaders to the ground to take on the mighty ruling DMK. Even the sitting Rajya Sabha MP and Minister of States L Murugan contested in Nilgiris against DMK leader A Raja. But the AIADMK failed to do so. There is not even one well-known face who contested..."

Sumanth Raman to The Quint

"The AIADMK failed in candidate selection. The former ministers and the top leaders should have contested against the DMK and the BJP when the fight was three-cornered. In a three-corner election fight, the candidates must be powerful," said Raman.

However, RB Udhayakumar disagrees. "As far as people are concerned, they vote for the two-leaf symbol – and not for the candidates. Several times, when Jayalalithaa was alive, she gave seats to freshers and they also won the elections," he said.

Are Minority Votes Shifting Away from AIADMK?

According to the 2011 census, Tamil Nadu has around 87.6 lakh minority voters, which includes 44 lakh Christians and 42 lakh Muslims.

Ever since the party's inception in 1977, founder and late chief minister MG Ramachandran (MGR) and his successor Jayalalithaa worked on developing a strong support base among the minorities. Then, the AIADMK had a strong presence in nearly 17 out of 27 Assembly constituencies, which had more than 20 percent of minority votes.

According to senior journalist Dhanaraj, minority votes played a cruicial role in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Tamil Nadu, too.

"I think the DMK's campaign worked well. From day one when the AIADMK cut off the BJP, the DMK tried to project it as 'drama' to fool the minority votes – and it worked. All the senior leaders and the spokespersons maintained that the AIADMK has a back-door relationship with the BJP."

Dhanaraj

However, political analyst Raman disagrees.

"The AIADMK never had a solid minority vote bank even when Jayalalithaa was alive. If you take the polling trend over the last 20 years, 90 percent of Christians always voted for the DMK and the AIADMK had only 30-35 percent of Muslim votes, and that too the Muslim women," Raman said. 

"When the AIADMK had a tie-up with the BJP, it perpetually lost the minority votes, and that's a well-known fact," the analyst added.

Pithchandi, who is a keen watcher of Tamil Nadu politics, told The Quint that the AIADMK lacked support amongst youngsters and first-time votes. "The perception and the view of the younger generation viewing politics are different. The party should concentrate on bringing youngsters into the party when it lacks a share of minority votes," he said.

Unified AIADMK – A Challenge to EPS?

The AIADMK has consecutively lost four major elections after Palaniswamy took charge of the party. After the 2019 defeat, the party lost power to the DMK in 2021 Assembly elections and the local body polls the year after.

After the defeat, former chief minister and rebel leader of AIADMK, O Paneerselvam, called for a unified AIADMK. Along the same lines, VK Sasikala, the trusted aide of Jayalalithaa, stressed on the importance of a unified party to defeat the DMK in the coming elections.

A senior AIADMK leader and former minister Ku Pa Krishnan said that whenever there was a problem, even MGR constituted a 'crisis resolving committee'.

"Such a committee should be formed, and most of the senior leaders who are concerned about the future of the party should be ready to accept the leadership of a person who is capable of coordinating everyone," he said.  

Meanwhile, Raman said, "If they want to win the 2026 Assembly elections, a unified AIADMK is necessary. Not only a merger of the AIADMK can bring about a change, but the party should form a strong alliance."

"Annan (Brother) is keen about a unified AIADMK. He is not eyeing the general secretary post. He wants the party to be alive for the next 100 years, as dreamt by our Amma (Jayalalithaa)," a functionary close to O Paneerselvam said.

(Vinodh Arulappan is an independent journalist with over 15 years of experience covering Tamil Nadu politics, socio-culture issues, courts, and crime in newspapers, television, and digital platforms.)