Manvendra Singh Jasol in many ways is a unique politician, being among the few politicians in the Hindi heartland to shift from the BJP to the Congress in the past five years. The same period saw a number of prominent faces do the reverse, such as Jyotiraditya Scindia and Jitin Prasada.
The son of late BJP stalwart Jaswant Singh, Manvendra Singh has been a member of Parliament from the Barmer-Jaisalmer Lok Sabha constituency and an MLA from the Sheo Assembly seat in Barmer district. Both these were on a BJP ticket.
However, Manvendra Singh's posturing ahead of the upcoming Rajasthan Assembly elections has put the Congress in a dilemma.
Manvendra Singh recently met Rahul Gandhi to supposedly to seek his support in his plan to contest the Rajasthan Assembly elections from Jaisalmer.
With the Congress taking its time to commit to Manvendra Singh, there was also some speculation that he could go back to the BJP.
What does Manvendra Singh want?
Why is the Congress in a dilemma?
This piece will try and answer these two questions and place them in the context of political equations in the Thar region.
What Does Manvendra Singh Want?
Manvendra has lost the last two elections he contested. In the 2018 Assembly elections, he was the Congress' candidate in Jhalrapatan against the then BJP CM Vasundhara Raje. This was completely away from his area of influence and it wasn't surprising that he lost against the then CM on her turf.
Then he contested the 2019 Lok Sabha electiosn from the Barmer-Jaisalmer Lok Sabha seat but lost to BJP's Kailash Choudhary.
As another loss may have harmful consequences for his career, sources say that Manvendra Singh sees Jaisalmer as a relatively safer seat.
Why Does He Want Jaisalmer Specifically?
Jaisalmer and Sheo were the only two segments where Manvendra Singh had a lead in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
The politics in Jaisalmer district is centered around three communities - Meghwals, Rajputs and Sindhi Muslims. Jats are less in number here compared to the neighbouring Barmer district.
Manvendra Singh's family has always had good ties with the Sindhi Muslim leadership. Jaswant Singh is even said to have a direct equation with the Pir of Pagaro in Pakistan, the spiritual leader of Sindhi Muslims.
Sindhi Muslims had supported Jaswant Singh overwhelmingly when he contested as an Independent in the 2014 elections.
Manvendra Singh's calculations are mainly based on a complete consolidation of Muslim voters and getting a sizable chunk of Rajput votes, due to his own clout in the community.
Sources in the Congress say that Manvendra Singh isn't keen on a seat in Barmer district because the Congress has traditionally been associated with Jat consolidation in Barmer.
Apparently he isn't too keen on his earlier seat - Sheo in Barmer district - due to two reasons.
First, a strong local leader Ravindra Singh Bhati has become popular among Rajputs and is likely to get a sizable chunk of votes from the community.
Second, contesting from Sheo would mean replacing the only Muslim MLA from the Congress in Barmer district, Ameen Khan. This could potentially alienate a section of Muslim votes.
For these two reasons, Manvendra Singh's Rajput-Muslim calculation may become complicated in Sheo.
Why is Fielding Manvendra from Jaisalmer Complicated for the Congress?
The problem for the Congress is that Jaisalmer is presently held by Rooparam Dhandev, one of the party's prominent faces from the Meghwal Dalit community.
Even though Jaisalmer is not a SC reserved seat, the Congress has been fielding Rooparam Dhandev from the seat mainly due to the importance of Meghwal votes. In 2018, Meghwals voted overwhelmingly for the Congress, giving it a boost in Marwar and Thar.
In Jaisalmer district, the Congress his historically relied mainly on a coalition of Meghwals and Sindhi Muslims while BJP has consolidated Rajputs and other dominant castes.
In the last two elections, the Congress has fielded Rooparam Dhandev from Jaisalmer and Saleh Mohammad from Pokhran. Saleh Mohammad is the son of late Ghazi Fakir, an important community leader of Sindhi Muslims.
Though Rooparam Dhandev and Saleh Mohammad have had some differences, each of them needs the support of the other's community to win.
This delicate balance could get disturbed if Manvendra Singh enters the fray. Manvendra Singh may still have a decent chance if he consolidates Muslim votes and gets a sizable chunk of Rajput votes, even if there's some reduction in Meghwal support due to the sitting MLA being shifted.
However, a shift of Meghwal voters away from the Congress would make matters very difficult of Saleh Mohammad in Pokhran.
The other issue would be to find another seat for Rooparam Dhandev. The Chohtan seat in Barmer district is being considered where sitting MLA Padma Ram of the Congress is facing some anti-incumbency.
The Congress has very limited room to maneuver in the border district.
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